Kazakhstan’s National Bank reduces country’s 2020 GDP growth forecast

Kazakhstan’s National Bank reduces country’s 2020 GDP growth forecast

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept. 7

By Nargiz Sadikhova - Trend:

Kazakhstan’s National Bank has reduced the country’s GDP growth forecast for 2020, Trend reports with reference to the National Bank.

The report said that Kazakhstan’s GDP decreased by 2.9 percent year-on-year over the first seven months of 2020.

“The decline of economic activity was due to the decline in the services sector, in particular in trade and transport. Additionally, there was a slowdown in the commodity manufacturing sector due to a contraction in the mining industry,” the bank said.

The ICT sector has made a positive contribution to the dynamics of GDP. The growth of the industry for seven months of 2020 was 8.7 percent. The services provision of mobile communication (2.2 percent), Internet networks (13.2 percent), and services for data transmission via telecommunication networks (18.4 percent) increased in volume. Gross agricultural output increased by 2.5 percent from January through July 2020, which was due to an increase in livestock production by 2.6 percent and crop production - by 2.1 percent.

In turn, the National Bank worsened its expectations for economic growth rates in 2020, due to a stronger decline in economic activity in 2Q2020, as well as the introduction of lockdown measures in July 2020.

Thus, based on the renewed National Bank’s forecasts Kazakhstan’s GDP will contract by 2-2.3 percent in 2020.

“In the case of an improvement in the epidemiological situation, economic growth will recover to 3.5-3.8 percent in 2021. This will be facilitated by a gradual recovery in external demand, the implementation of deferred investment projects, a positive fiscal impulse, an improvement in the situation on the labor market, and a revival of consumer demand,” the report said.

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Follow the author on twitter: @nargiz_sadikh

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