OPEC incapable to stop oil prices falling: west experts
Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec.18 / Trend , corr. A.Badalova / The decision of OPEC about reduction in the daily output did not help to stop a drop in oil prices, which fell to minimum level since 2004. The cost of January futures to the American WTI light oil on the New York commodity exchange reduced by $3.54 per barrel to $40.06 on Dec.17. In London the price of January futures of the North Sea Brent oil fell to $1.12 and to $45.53 per barrel.
"The main goal of OPEC's decision was to pull prices back up to $50, but the reality is that prices will probably push below $40/bbl, Lawrence Eagles, the analyst of one of the largest American JPMorgan bank, said to Trend via e-mail.
At the session of OPEC, in which besides its members the producing countries, which do not enter the cartel - Azerbaijan, Russia, Oman and Syria, took part and the decision to reduce the daily oil production to 2.2mln barrels since Jan. 1, 2009 was made. Since September 2008, the output was reduced by 4.2mln barrels per day.
According to Eagles, any significant improvement in prices will have to wait until the world economy gets back onto a growth path, and works off current high stocks and the spare capacity that is being created - a task which will take some time
"Ultimately, Saudi Arabia has probably achieved the impossible - it has offered producers a lifeline to lift crude prices, staved off regional political criticism," Eagles said.
The largest oil supplier Saudi Arabia reduced the deliveries of "black gold" to the world market by % - even before the session of OPEC took place. The volume of daily oil production in the country over the last month was 8.5mln barrels.
Non-OPEC producers Azerbaijan and Russia have also given lip service to cuts. But essentially their biggest offering is the output decline that is already underway in Russia, and ongoing pipeline problems that have cut output in Azerbaijan since July.
According to analysts of the American Energy Security Analysis (ESAI) company, OPEC to maintain prices near $50, and will pursue an aggressive policy in the first quarter to support crude values.
"However, as demand begins to recover somewhat in the second half of the year, and prices start climbing. Unless the developing economies completely collapse next year, the more aggressive OPEC action should be sufficient to keep prices near current levels," is stated in the report developed by ESAI analysts.
According to the company, the average WTI prices will total $50/bbl in 2009. The world oil demand in 2009 will comprise 85.7mln barrels per day against 85.6mln barrels per day in 2008.
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