OPEC will not up oil quotas for two years: analysts

OPEC will not up oil quotas for two years: analysts

Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 11 / Trend , A.Badalova/

Analysts at the U.S. bank Morgan Stanley believe OPEC will not increase oil production quotas in the next two years.

"We do not expect that OPEC will need to increase oil production quotas by late 2011," the analysts said.

Oil production by 11 OPEC countries (except Iraq) is 24.85 million barrels per day. At their last meeting in September, OPEC members decided to maintain oil production quotas.

Earlier, OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said the cartel might increase oil exports if oil prices reach $75 per barrel.

The next OPEC session will take place in the Angolan capital Luanda Dec. 22. Participants plan to reassess the market at the meeting. However, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Amed al-Abdullah al-Sabah said this week that the cartel intends to hold an emergency meeting if oil prices reach $100.

Oil is traded on world oil markets at $75-80 per barrel. However, according to many analysts, oil prices will increase in the near future. U.S. bank Goldman Sachs expects the prices on U.S. crude WTI to exceed $85 per barrel by late 2009 on the backdrop of the increase in oil-related product consumption in the U.S. Morgan Stanley analysts forecast an average WTI price of $85 in 2010.

Meanwhile, analysts at the U.S. bank JPMorgan believe oil prices are too high for OPEC.

"OPEC is likely to be comfortable with oil prices at $50-60 per barrel," the analysts said.

The cartel, according to the analysts, will try to prevent excessively high prices, "because the oil producers do not want to be culprits in stopping the global economic recovery."

The U.S. State Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that in response to the anticipated growth in demand, OPEC oil production will gradually increase in late 2009.

The EIA forecasts OPEC oil production will increase to 29.3 million barrels per day in the second half of 2009. In 2010, OPEC oil production will reach 29.2 million barrels per day.

According to the EIA, in the first half of 2009, the cartel's oil production was 28.7 million barrels per day with a 2.6-million-bpd fall from the same period in 2008.

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