Azerbaijan, Baku, March 10 / Trend A.Badalova /
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts an increase in oil production by OPEC at an average of 0.4mln bpd up to 29.5mln bpd in 2010 and compared to 29.89mln bpd in 2011.
EIA expects that at the upcoming Vienna meeting to be held March 17 OPEC will not change production quotas. Based on the EIA monthly report on short-term review of the energy market, considering the expected growth in oil demand in 2010, oil prices will continue to strengthen despite the increase in production in 2010 by the cartel and non-OPEC countries.
Current quota of oil production set by OPEC is 24.85 million barrels per day. Nevertheless, in February, OPEC oil production totaled 29.2 million barrels per day, which is the highest level in the last 14 months.
World oil demand
Based on EIA forecast, in 2010 the world oil demand will increase by 1.47 million bpd - up to 85.51 million bpd, compared to 1.2 million bpd growth projected earlier.
EIA explains the increase in its forecasts of demand, mainly by expectations of strong economic growth. Strong economic growth in 2010 is expected in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. EIA project the U.S. GDP to grow by 2.8 percent in 2010 and by 2.6 percent in 2011. Global economic growth is projected to reach 3.4 and 3.5 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
In 2011, EIA predicts an increase in the world oil demand by 1.55 million bpd - up to 87.06 million bpd.
Based on EIA estimates, in 2010, OECD countries' oil demand will increase by 0.1 million bpd - up to 45.48 million bpd and by 0.26 million bpd - up to 45.74 million bpd in 2011.
Non-OECD countries' oil demand will be 40.03 million bpd in 2010 and 41.32 million bpd in 2011.
Oil supplies by non-OPEC countries
Based on EIA forecast, in 2010 oil supply by non-OPEC countries will increase by 0.55 million bpd - up to 50.82 million bpd and decrease by 0.09 million bpd - up to 50.73 million bpd in 2011.
In 2010, growth in oil supplies by non-OPEC countries will be observed thanks to the U.S., Kazakhstan, Brazil and Azerbaijan, the agency reported.
The volume of oil supplies by former Soviet states will be 13.15 million bpd in 2010 and 13.11 million bpd in 2011.
EIA projected Azerbaijan's oil production at 1.13 million bpd in 2010 and 1.21 million bpd in 2011.
Kazakhstan will produce 1.65 million bpd in 2010 and 1.7 million bpd in 2011, the agency forecasted.
Based on EIA forecast, Turkmenistan's oil production will increase by 0.2 million bpd in 2010 and 0.21 million bpd in 2011.
The volume of the global oil supply will increase by 1.56 million bpd- up to 85.71 million bpd in 2010 and by 0.98mln bpd up to 86.69mln bpd in 2011, EIA forecasted.
Oil Prices
EIA expects that spot price of WTI will remain at a level close to the current, reaching $ 80 per barrel in this spring and then increased to $82 per barrel by the end of year. In late 2011, the figure will reach $85 per barrel.
As a result of trades on Tuesday march 9, April futures price for the U.S. crude oil WTI fall by $0.38 - to $81.49 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The State Energy Information Administration is statistical agency of U.S Department of Energy established by the Congress in 1977.
Do you have any feedback? Contact our journalist at: [email protected]