Azerbaijan, Baku, July 26 / Trend A. Badalova /
Nabucco gas pipeline project, designed to transport gas from the Caspian region and the Middle East to the EU countries will be implemented, but later than planned, Editor-in-chief at Eurasia Energy Observer, Andrej Tibold, said.
"In my personal opinion, Nabucco will eventually have to materialise, but not under the set timeline, more likely around 2016, then Shah Deniz-2 should come on stream as well," Tibold told Trend via e-mail.
The Nabucco gas pipeline project worth 7.9 billion euro envisages gas supplies from the Caspian region to EU countries.
Construction is planned to launch in 2011, with first supplies being commissioned in 2014.
Today, Azerbaijan, Iraq and Turkmenistan are considered as the main gas suppliers for the project. In particular, gas extracted during the second stage of development of Azerbaijani field Shah-Deniz is considered as one of the sources in the first phase of the project.
Reserves of Shah Deniz field are estimated at 1.2 trillion cubic meters of gas.
A peak production from the field within the first stage of development is projected at 8,6-9 billion cubic meters. According to the forecasts, gas production will be increased by another 16 billion cubic meters per year within the second stage of development of the field.
Taking into account that the implementation of the second phase of Shah Deniz is scheduled for 2016, the first deliveries of gas through Nabucco will be implemented at the expense of the Iraqi gas, "Nabucco" project official representative Christian Dolezal told Trend.
In general, Nabucco expects to get gas worth 8 billion cubic meters from Iraq and 8-10 billion cubic meters - from Azerbaijan at the first stage.
According to Tibold, Nabucco's potential is huge, because it is about connecting one of the world's most gas rich regions, the Caspian, with one of the most promising markets, the EU.
Things might look a bit brighter for Nabucco if French energy company would enter the project, but for now this remains unlikely, he said.
In this respect, by increasing the number of shareholders, like energy companies from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as talk is going, the project could generate more financial resources and political capital to eventually make it a success and strengthen its commercial viability, Tibold said.
In early July the State Fund of Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) told about its interest to buy a package of shares in the project by late 2010.
Participants are the Austrian OMV, Hungarian MOL, Bulgarian Bulgargaz, Romanian Transgaz, Turkish Botas and German RWE. Each has an equal 16.67-percent share.
Nabucco project consortium has repeatedly stated that it is ready for the seventh partner, if its accession benefits the project in future.