Azerbaijan, Baku, July 4 / Trend A. Badalova /
One of the largest U.S. bank JP Morgan has lowered forecasts for world oil prices for 2010-2011. According to new projections of the bank, the price for U.S. crude oil WTI this year will amount to $77.25 per barrel compared to $ 81.75 per barrel forecasted by the bank earlier, and about $79.25 in 2011 compared to $90 per barrel forecasted earlier.
The bank forecasted the price for North Sea Brent crude oil to the amount of $77.75 per barrel in 2010 and $80.25 per barrel in 2011. Earlier the bank forecasted the price for this kind of oil to the amount of $82.25 per barrel and $92 per barrel in 2010-2011 accordingly.
According to the monthly report of JP Morgan on the oil market, the price for WTI will be $75 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2010, Brent - $85 a barrel.
The highest prices for WTI and Brent will be observed in the fourth quarter in 2011 - $85 and $86 per barrel accordingly.
As a result of trading on Tuesday, August 3 the price for September futures for WTI on the New York Exchange increased by $1,21 up to $82.55 per barrel. Price for September futures for Brent increased by $1.86 up to $82.68 per barrel on the London Stock Exchange.
World oil demand
JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase in global oil demand at $1.8 per barrel up to $86.8 per barrel in 2010.
Global demand will increase by $1.5 per barrel up to $88.3 per barrel in 2011.
Of the total oil demand in 2010, about 45.8 million barrels a day will fall to OECD countries (the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), 41,1 million barrels per day - countries non-members of the organization.
Oil demand in the OECD increased by 0.1 million barrels per day up to 45.9 million barrels per day, in countries non-members of the organization - 1,3 million barrels up to 42.4 million barrels per day in 2011.
Demand for oil in Asian countries will hit 27.1 million barrels per day in 2010 and 27.7 million barrels per day in 2011. Most demand among Asian countries will fall to China - 9 million barrels a day this year and 9.4 million barrels a day next year.
OPEC Oil Supply
JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase of world oil supply by 1.8 million barrels per day up to 86.7 and 1.4 million up to 88.1 million barrels per day in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
Of the total world oil supply in 2010, about 29,1 million barrels a day or 0,5 million barrels a day more than the amount in 2009 will fall to OPEC. According to the forecasts of the bank, the highest level of oil cartel this year will occur in the fourth quarter - 29.2 million barrels per day.
The bank forecasts an increase in OPEC supply by 0.3 million barrels up to 29.4 million barrels per day in 2011. The level of supply will be 29.3 million barrels a day in the first and second quarters of next year, 29.4 million barrels - in the third quarter and 29.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Deliveries of oil by countries-non OPEC members
Analysts of the bank raised the forecasts of oil supplies to the countries non-OPEC members this year from 0.8 million up to 50.1 million barrels per day. The bank forecasts increase in supplies by these countries in 2011 by 0.6 million up to 50.8 million barrels per day. The bank analysts predict a reduction in oil supply by these countries by 0.3 million barrels up to 49.8 million barrels per day in 2011.
According to JP Morgan, oil production by countries non-OPEC-members reduced in June by 166,000 barrels per day up to 40.47 million barrels per day. Oil production in the former Soviet Union in June increased by 0,028 million barrels per day up to 12.432 million barrels per day.