Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 9 /Trend, A.Badalova/
The world oil demand will rise from 87 million barrels per day in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, International Energy Agency 's (IEA) World Energy Outlook (WEO) reads. The 2011 edition of the WEO was released on Wednesday.
"All of the net increase in oil demand comes from the transport sector in emerging economies, as economic growth pushes up demand for personal mobility and freight," the WEO said.
Based on the IEA forecasts, production of conventional crude oil will remain at current levels before slightly declining to around 68 mb/d by 2035.
The IEA expects the largest increase in oil production in Iraq, followed by Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Kazakhstan and Canada.
Based on the forecasts, the output in the Middle East and North Africa region will fell to 3.4 mb/d by 2015 and 6.2 mb/d by 2020.
"Globally, reliance grows on a relatively small number of producers, mainly in the MENA region, with oil shipped along vulnerable supply routes. In aggregate, the increase in production from this region is over 90% of the required growth in world oil output, pushing the share of OPEC in global production above 50% in 2035," the WEO said.
Based on the forecasts, the share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption will fall from 81 percent in 2010 to 75 percent in 2035. Natural gas is the only fossil fuel to increase its share in the global mix over the period to 2035, IEA believes.
The IEA forecasts global investment in energy supply infrastructure of $38 trillion (in year-2010 dollars) will be required over the period 2011 to 2035. Almost two-thirds of the total investment will be in countries outside of the OECD.