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OPEC: World oil demand growth to reach 1.2 mb/d in 2012

Oil&Gas Materials 10 November 2011 17:51 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 10 /Trend, A.Badalova/

Word oil demand will increase by 1.19 mln bpd to 89.01 mln bpd in 2012, according to the OPEC's November report on oil market.

According to OPEC's forecasts, the highest level of global oil demand next year will occur in the fourth quarter - 90.33 mln bpd. In the first quarter of 2012, the demand will be 88.73 mln bpd, the second - 87.44 mln bpd, in the third quarter - 89.5 mln bpd.

Oil demand in OECD countries next year will decrease by 0.01 mln bpd to 45.87 mln bpd.

OPEC expects the EU oil demand will continue to contract next year resulting not only from weak economic growth but also from maintaining its efficiency trend.

OPEC forecasts world economic growth at 3.6 percent in 2011 and 2012.

According to OPEC's forecasts, oil demand in China in 2012 will amount to 9.87 mln bpd.

"Chinese oil demand is expected to grow the most world-wide despite government efforts to curb energy use within the country. Chinese oil demand is expected to inch up by 5.1% y-o-y," the report said.

Along with China, the Middle East, India, Brazil, and the rest of the non-OECD countries will boost world oil demand by 1.2 mln bpd in 2012.

OPEC forecasts an increase global oil demand by 0.88 mln bpd - up to 87.81 mln bpd in 2011.

In the fourth quarter global oil demand will amount 89.13 mln bpd compared to 88.3 mln bpd in the third quarter.

Roughly 45.88 mln bpd of the total oil demand will fall to the OECD countries this year. In the U.S., oil demand will amount to 23.64 mln bpd.

Demand for oil in China will amount 9.39 mln bpd in 2011.

World oil supply

According to OPEC estimates, in October the volume of world oil supplies increased by 0.87 mln bpd to 88.35 mln bpd.

Oil supplies by non-OPEC countries last month increased by 0.86 mln bpd.

In October the total OPEC oil production slightly increased by 5 tb/d to 29.89 mln bpd.

OPEC's share in total world oil supply last month remained steady at 34 percent.

Non-OPEC production

According to the report, oil supplied by countries-non-OPEC members will increase by 0.22 mln bpd to 52.5 mln bpd in 2011. This represents a sharp downward revision of 0.13 mb/d from the previous report, which came mainly from the second half of 2011, as updated third quarter production showed lower-than-expected output.

According to OPEC, oil supplied by the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will be increased by 30,000 bpd - up to 20.01 mln bpd in 2011.

Oil production in the U.S. is projected at 15.37 mln bpd in 2011 or 0.38 mln bpd more than the production levels in 2010.

According to the OPEC forecasts, the countries of the former Soviet Union will supply 13.29 mln bpd in 2011 or 0.07 mln bpd more than in 2010.

According to OPEC forecasts, in 2012, the oil supply by non-OPEC countries will increase by 0.82 mln bpd to 53.32 mln bpd.

Deliveries of crude oil by OECD countries next year will amount to 20.11 mln bpd, the volume of oil supplies by former Soviet states is projected at 13.46 mln bpd next year.

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