BP expects Iraq’s oil production to rise in long-term

Oil&Gas Materials 18 January 2012 18:48 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 18 /Trend A.Badalova/

Iraqi crude output will increase from about 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) currently to more than 5.5 mln bpd by 2030, BP Energy Outlook 2030, published on Wednesday, says.

By 2020 Iraq's oil output is expected to exceed 4.5 mln bpd.

About 20 percent of global supply growth is expected to fall to Iraq from 2010 to 2030, BP said.

According to BP's expectations, service contracts awarded since mid-2009 have signaled the notional possibility that Iraqi capacity could reach 12 mln bpd by 2020.

"However, limited project development capacity and infrastructure constraints may result in project delays and cost inflation, BP's report said. Key challenges exist in developing export pipelines, terminals and water injection infrastructure. Security challenges, as well as political constraints, are also likely to weigh on capacity expansion plans."

BP believes that a rapid increase in Iraqi output could have an impact on oil prices.

"OPEC is likely to seek to reintegrate Iraq into the quota system over time, which is an additional source of uncertainty," BP said.

According to BP, Iraq's proved oil reserves amounted to 115 billion barrels in early 2011. In 2010 the country's oil production increased by 0.6 percent to 2.46 million barrels per day.