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OPEC decreases forecast for Kazakhstan’s oil production in medium term

Oil&Gas Materials 6 November 2014 18:10 (UTC +04:00)

Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov. 6

By Elena Kosolapova - Trend:

OPEC slightly decreased forecast for Kazakhstan's oil production for 2014, 2015 and 2016, OPEC's 2014 World Oil Outlook said.

Kazakhstan's oil and natural gas liquids production is forecast to remain at the level of 1.6 million barrels of oil per day in 2014, 2015 and 2016 as it was in 2013 with an increase to 1.9 million barrels of oil per day in 2017, 2018 and 2019 in the reference case.

Last year report OPEC forested Kazakhstan's oil and natural gas liquids production would increase to 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in 2014, to 1.8 million barrels of oil per day in 2015 and to 1.9 million barrels of oil per day in 2016-2018.

"Supply growth over the medium-term will mainly come from Kashagan (Phase 1), the Tengiz expansion, and the Akote and Fedorovskiy blocks," the 2014 outlook says.

OPEC noted that Kazakhstan's production comes mainly from five onshore fields - Tengiz, Karachaganak, Aktobe, Mangistau, and Uzen - and two offshore fields - Kashagan and Kurmangazy (both located in the Caspian Sea). Tengiz and Karachaganak produce about 50 percent of Kazakhstan's total production.

First oil production from Kashagan started on 11 September 2013. But shortly thereafter production was shut-in due to leaking gas pipelines. This resulted in the need for massive repairs which will delay future production until al least the end of 2015.

"As a result, Kazakhstan exhibits slower growth in this year's medium-term Reference Case compared to last year's Outlook," OPEC said.

In the long term OPEC forecasts oil and natural gas liquids will continue growing. Oil production and natural gas liquids will increase to 1.9 million barrels per day in 2020, 2.2 million barrels per day in 2025, 2.6 million barrels per day in 2030, 2.9 million barrels per day in 2035 and 3.0 million barrels per day in 2040 in the reference case.

Meanwhile based on the screening analysis, downside potential in the medium- to long-term is possible for Kazakhstan.

OPEC noted that internal demand for oil and natural gas liquids hit 0.29 million barrels per day in Kazakhstan in 2013.

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