Baku, Azerbaijan, Feb. 18
By Aygun Badalova - Trend:
Energy Security Analysis (ESAI), which is the leading US-based independent research firm, forecasts the eventual rebalancing of the global oil market.
"Obviously there are a lot of potential geopolitical threats to oil supply that could accelerate the return to a balanced market, but absent unexpected supply interruptions, a rebalancing of the market will be a slow process," ESAI Energy Principal Sarah Emerson said.
"Alternatively, OPEC could come up with a collective production cut under new circumstances that would right the ship more quickly," Emerson said in a report obtained by Trend.
Moderately stronger demand, and a quick but somewhat soft landing on non-OPEC supply will gradually chip away at the global oil glut and finally lift the call on OPEC back close to 30 million barrels per day by 2018, ESAI's report said.
The company believes that if OPEC holds production at close to 30 million barrels per day between now and then, that is when the market would return to a rough balance.
"Between now and then, crude oil prices will remain under pressure," ESAI said.
From 2010 to 2013, global oil demand grew at an average of 1.7 million barrels per day, but in 2014 that pace slowed dramatically to only 900,000 barrels per day of growth, according to the ESAI's estimates.
Taking into account the drop in global oil prices, changes to subsidies/taxes, and the strong dollar, ESAI Energy projects oil demand growth to recover to about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2015-2016, then slow down again for the rest of the decade.
"Higher oil demand from lower oil prices is inevitable, but for some countries and products the results will be very mixed," Emerson said.
The company predicts that after growing 2.3 million barrels per day, non-OPEC supply growth will slow to 1.2 million barrels per day in 2015, to 900,000 barrels per day in 2016-2017, ad then slow further for the rest of the decade.
Global oil supply decreased by 0.29 million barrels per day to average 93.15 million barrels per day in January 2015 compared with the previous month, according to OPEC's latest Oil Market Report. The decline of OPEC production as well as non-OPEC supply in January decreased global oil output.
Total OPEC crude oil production in January averaged 30.15 million barrels per day, a decrease of 53,000 barrels per day over the previous month.
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Aygun Badalova is Trend Agency's staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @AygunBadalova