Libya may put global oil market balances under risk

Libya may put global oil market balances under risk

Baku, Azerbaijan, July 26

By Aygun Badalova - Trend:

As political situation in Libya is slowly stabilizing, the country's role in the global oil market may be decisive, considering that Libya is a large global oil producer and OPEC member.

Market balances would shift meaning fully if Libya were to reach oil production of 700,000-800,000 barrels per day, analysts of the US JP Morgan bank believe.

In their weekly Oil Market report, obtained by Trend, analysts noted that an increase in volume of Libyan supplies to world crude markets has proven elusive in recent quarters.

Yet recent months have seen a UN sponsored unity government formed which has resulted in the National Oil Company being reintegrated. Progress towards restarting an increasing share of output is underway, analysts said.

While political challenges remain, the restart of production in the east of the country looks closer now than at any time in the past year, JP Morgan’s analysts believe.

Since 2014, Libya has been split between rival governments and parliaments based in the western and eastern regions, each backed by different militias and tribes.

Last month the country’s rival governments in the east and west agreed to merge their competing oil companies. The agreement was hailed as a positive step and some even predicted Libya could quickly double its oil production.

According to the latest OPEC data, Libya produced 332,000 barrels oil per day in June compared to 271,000 barrels per day in May. In end 2015, the country produced 401,000 barrels per day.

Libyan production has languished all year at between 250,000 and 380,000 barrels per day, averaging just under 350,000 barrels per day year to date, and down around 50,000 barrels pre day, year over year, according to the JP Morgan analysts’ data.

Libyan oil fields rank amongst the largest in Africa, but five years of civil war and collateral damage to fields and, arguably more importantly, pipeline and port infrastructure, have taken their toll, analysts noted.

“However, recent reports suggest that restarting fields may be closer to becoming a reality now that there is a unified National Oil Company,” they said.

Nevertheless, analysts retain the cautious outlook as infrastructure problems in the country persist and threats of geopolitical risk escalation remain high.

According to the analysts’ latest forecast, Libyan oil production will reamain steady at 400,000 barrels per day during 2017.

Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS), a Washington based think tank focused on energy security, and a senior adviser to the United States Energy Security Council believes that if the political situation improves in Libya the market could see an additional 600,000 barrels a day coming online.

That scenario, as Luft told Trend, will push oil prices to the low 40s, or perhaps lower.

Israel and Greece sign record defence deal
Israel and Greece sign record defence deal
Israel reports 130 new COVID-19 cases, 837,012 in total
Israel reports 130 new COVID-19 cases, 837,012 in total
Israeli business interested in expanding cooperation with Kazakhstan
Israeli business interested in expanding cooperation with Kazakhstan
Loading Bars
Latest
Iran's renewable energy power plants increasing production
Azerbaijan appoints new ambassadors to several countries
Turkmenistan's Balkan region opens tender for construction of new village
Georgia sees increase in electricity imports from Azerbaijan
Azerbaijani president signs order to recall ambassador to Spain and Andorra
Britain’s M&S to boost online capacity with second warehouse
Azerbaijani president signs order to dismiss Ramiz Hasanov from post of deputy FM
Iranian banks should stick to interest rates set by Central Bank - CBI governor
Exports from Iran's Gilan Province rise
Iran announces new rules for cryptocurrency mining
Technip Energies completes overhaul of SOCAR’s petrochemical complex
Iran's NISOC discloses amount of saved funds
IMF unveils outlook for ratio of Azerbaijan's state budget deficit to GDP
Azerbaijan shows footage from Mehdili village of Jabrayil district (VIDEO)
Work on Azerbaijan's Aghjabadi-Khojavand highway to wrap up soon (PHOTO)
Azerbaijan publishes data on 1Q2021 oil exports abroad
Horizontal directional drilling for IGB to begin in several months
Progress on Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria as of mid-April
Iran to launch renewable energy power plants
Microsoft to invest $1 bln in Malaysia to set up data centres - Malaysian PM
External merchandise trade of Georgia down
Copper ores and concentrates top Georgian exports
Azerbaijani mobile operators 1Q2021 revenues slightly lower
Uzbekistan’s Zharkurgonneft JSC to be reorganized by joining Uzbekneftegaz JSC
Around 500,000 bd of Iranian oil to enter market this year - JP Morgan
New Turkish ambassador arriving in Azerbaijan (PHOTO)
Resources of Qarz Al-Hasaneh Mehr Iran Bank soar
Iran raises imports of electrical goods from Turkey
Turkey records fewer cargo shipments at Izmir Airport
Russia records 8,589 new daily COVID-19 cases
Ukraine organizes charter flight to Turkmenistan
Czech Republic, Georgia plan to sign number of agreements
US increases imports of clothes from Turkey
Iran's IOOC begins extraction of crude oil from Esfand oil field
Turkey sees decline in number of real estate bought by Iranian citizens in 1Q2021
MOL Group’s capex on Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli revealed
Georgia reports 578 new cases of coronavirus for April 19
Uzbekistan's Bukhara Refinery resumes operations
Turkmenistan launches online services for State Registration of Rights to Real Estate
Kazakhstan’s Almaty Power Stations JSC opens tender for turbines repair
Azerbaijan's agricultural production value continues to grow
MOL Group discloses production volume at Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli
Germany boosts imports of Turkish-made chemicals
Weekly review of Azerbaijani oil market
India's Delhi to lock down for six days as COVID-19 outbreak worsens
Azerbaijan announces 1Q2021 investments in oil, gas sector
Azerbaijan sees growth in gold price
One of Azerbaijan's payment systems plans to provide new services
Iran plans to increase electricity generation from nuclear power plants
Iran Khodro Company boosts its manufacturing
Iran's Ministry of Roads talks registry of vacant houses
Iran's parliamentary speaker talks JCPOA
Russia conducts over 126 mln coronavirus tests
Goldman Sachs invests $69 million in Britain's Starling Bank
Azerbaijan raises production of building materials
Turkmen products sold to various countries on exchange
Azerbaijan reveals number of entrepreneurs served by SME dev't centers
President Ilham Aliyev inaugurates newly renovated “Hovsan” and “Mashtagha” substations (PHOTO)
Iranian Economic Coordination Council discusses stock market situation
Ethylene production of Iran's Jam Petrochemical Complex has increases
Turkey sees increase in registration of Azerbaijani companies in 1Q2021
Azerbaijan reveals 1Q2021 cargo, passenger transportation data
Azerbaijan shares footage from Fuzuli's Sardarly village (VIDEO)
Clubhouse closes new round of funding that would value app at $4 billion -source
Global LNG trade expansion to see slower pace in 2021
Belarus ready to share experience, knowledge in agrarian sector with Azerbaijan - minister
Iranian currency rates for April 19
Eurasian gas production to near 2019 levels
Azerbaijani currency rates for Apr. 19
Austria's 1Q2021 import of Turkish grains, legumes surges
Turkey reveals 2M2021 cargo shipment figures via local ports from Italy
European gas demand to recover to pre-crisis level in 2021
Bushehr nuclear power plant remains safe during earthquake
Iran begins enriching uranium using new generation centrifuges
Iran's National Housing Action Plan price not to increase - Deputy Minister
Iran concerned over increase in COVID-19 infections - President Rouhani
ACG oil transshipment from Ceyhan terminal nears 63 million barrels YTD
Iran sees increase in number of new mines
Two dead in Tesla crash in Texas that was believed to be driverless
Iran records increase in licensing for establishment of enterprises
Iran’s GTC discloses volume of wheat purchased from farmers
Bank Keshavarzi Iran issues loans in Lorestan Province
Iran implementing plans for dev't of facilities in Persian Gulf Special Economic Zone
Iran shares data on exports of handicrafts from Zanjan Province
Oil drops as surging COVID-19 infections stoke demand concerns
Israel and Greece sign record defence deal
Armenia should abandon all territorial claims against Azerbaijan - Azerbaijani official
India's COVID-19 tally surpasses 15 mln, with 273,810 daily cases
WHO includes two coronavirus vaccines developed by scientists of Uzbekistan in drug candidates list
Brazil reports 1,657 single-day deaths from COVID-19
Сo-op in Eurasian transport networks may create new opportunities for transit corridors between Latvia, Azerbaijan - embassy
12 European football teams to form breakaway 'Super League' throwing elite game into turmoil
Turkey confirms 55,802 new COVID-19 cases, 318 deaths
Five diplomats to stay in Czech embassy inn Moscow - presidential office
NASA's Mars helicopter to attempt first flight Monday
Turkey extends condolences to Egypt over deadly train accident
Albania opens 2nd int'l airport
Four dead in light plane crash near Paris
Israel reports 130 new COVID-19 cases, 837,012 in total
Canada's Trudeau mobilizes federal workers to battle COVID-19 in Toronto and rest of Ontario
All news