Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov. 8
By Elena Kosolapova – Trend:
OPEC forecasts that non-OPEC liquids output will rise to a high of 61.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2027 and then slowly drop to 58.9 mb/d in 2040.
“In terms of supply, the lower oil price environment is expected to see overall non-OPEC supply decline in the period of 2016-2017, before slowly rising again in 2021,” OPEC said in its 2016 World Oil Outlook, published Nov. 8.
“Non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to rise from 56.9 mb/d in 2015 to 58.6 mb/d in 2021, an increase of 1.7 mb/d. In the long-term, non-OPEC supply again rises steadily, but it is expected to peak at 61.4 mb/d in 2027, before dropping to 58.9 mb/d in 2040,” said the cartel.
“The OECD reaches a maximum of 27.5 mb/d in 2027 (mainly from the US & Canada), while developing countries (particularly Latin America) reach a high of 17.3 mb/d in 2024. Only Eurasia continues to grow over the long-term, reaching 14.7 mb/d in 2040,” OPEC said.
The report said that until 2030, a major source of growth is US tight crude.
“Around this time, tight crude begins to contract, while sources like oil sands and biofuels become more important non-OPEC supply growth drivers,” said the cartel.
To reflect supply uncertainties that result from various factors, including costs, technologies, geology, policies and geopolitical developments, upside and downside scenarios have been developed for non-OPEC supply sources including tight oil, crude, NGLs, biofuels and other liquids.
“By 2040, non-OPEC output reaches 63.2 mb/d in the upside scenario and 55.8 mb/d in the downside scenario,” according to OPEC.
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