IEA reveals forecasts for global oil demand

Oil&Gas Materials 11 August 2017 13:39 (UTC +04:00)

Baku, Azerbaijan, August 11

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

For 2017, global oil demand growth has been revised up to 1.5 million barrels per day (b/d), with demand reaching 97.6 million b/d, according to the August Oil Market Report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

“In 2018, growth slows slightly to 1.4 million b/d when demand will be 99 million b/d. In 4Q18, demand will reach 100.1 million b/d,” said the report.

Producers should find encouragement from demand, which is growing year-on-year more strongly than first thought, IEA analysts believe.

“There is a sting in the tail because recently notified changes to historical data suggest that demand in some developing countries was overstated. We have accordingly reduced our estimate of non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) demand for 2015 by 0.2 million b/d and for 2016 by 0.4 million b/d. The impact of carrying this lower demand base into 2017 against unchanged supply numbers is that stock draws later in the year are likely to be lower than first thought,” said the report.

Even so, IEA analysts suggest that this does not dilute the importance of the message that the market is re-balancing.

“Brent crude oil prices have recently stabilized above $50 per barrel following a period a few weeks ago when, as we said in last month's Report, there was "waning confidence" in the market. If re-balancing is to be maintained, the producers that are committed to seeing the task through to March 2018 need to convince the market that they are in it together,” said the report.


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