Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov.14
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
In the case of a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, oil prices can increase by $5-$10 per barrel, Cyril Widdershoven, a Middle East geopolitical specialist and energy analyst, a partner at Dutch risk consultancy VEROCY and SVP MEA-Risk, told Trend.
He believes that a regional war will have a detrimental effect for the oil price and supplies.
“A war with Iran or its proxies, can first of all threaten to block the Strait of Hormuz, blocking 6 million barrels of oil per day and a vast amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the world. A continuation of military actions also will increase the price by $5-$10 dollars per barrel. A blockade of Hormuz or the Strait of Aden will put another $3-$5,” added the expert.
As for the likelihood of a military clashes between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Widdershoven noted that at present, the situation is reaching a real boiling point.
“The role of Iran is a growing worry of the Arab Gulf states, where Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are showing a commitment to confront Iran in full. As stated by UAE's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Mohammed Qarqash, the chance of a war in the region has increased from 0 percent at the beginning of 2017 to 40 percent for 2018. This shows, as he is still a diplomat that the fear and anxiety in the Arab world has increased,” said the expert.
Nevertheless, Widdershoven believes that a real direct war is far from becoming a reality.
“Iran's continuing support of militias in Iraq, the support for Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen is not at all accepted anymore. A real direct war is still far from becoming a reality, however the option of a military action against the proxies of Iran (Iraqi militants, Hezbollah, Houthis) has reached a point of military action by Saudi-UAE and others. Full cooperation is already on the Arab side, where military and others are being put on notice,” he added.
The expert believes that in reality, no party is interested in a war, as the costs will be extreme, and the fallout will have a detrimental effect on the region for a long period.
“However, further continuation of Iranian actions in the Arab regions, such as Syria or Lebanon, but for sure Houthi actions against Saudi Arabia, can be taken as a precursor for military action against Iran by the Arab countries,” he said.
Widdershoven expects that at the same time, with US Trump's support for the Arab standpoint and the expected expansion of sanctions on Iran, Hezbollah and the Iranian IRGC, Iranian economy will be hit or even will be coming to a standstill.
On the other hand, the expert noted that Moscow is cosying up to Riyadh too.
For Moscow, as the war in Syria is almost over and strategic goals of Russia have been reached, Iran's position could be weakened very soon, he said, adding that Moscow is looking at bringing the Arab world (Saudi/UAE/Egypt) into its influence sphere, increasing investments but also weakening Washington.
The recent developments in the Middle East including the resignation of Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri as well as a missile launch at Saudi capital Riyadh has worsen deteriorating ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Hariri who announced he was stepping down last week during a visit to Saudi Arabia, has blamed the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement for his resignation, citing concerns over his and his family's safety.
Although Iran and Hezbollah have accused Saudi Arabia of holding Hariri hostage, he has denied the allegation.
Moreover, on November 4, Riyadh was subjected to a missile attack from neighboring Yemen. Saudi Arabia considered it as a signal from Tehran about readiness to start a missile war against it by using Houthis in Yemen. Saudi Defense Ministry assessed the missile attack from Yemen’s territory as “an outrageous act of military aggression by Iran, which can be seen in the future as an act of war against Saudi Arabia."
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