Baku, Azerbaijan, May 2
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The outlook for oil prices anticipates a rise to above $60 a barrel in 2018–2019, a 20 percent increase over 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its May Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia.
“The outlook for oil prices remains highly uncertain, largely reflecting supply-side uncertainty. Oil prices grew strongly in the second half of 2017, rising above $65 a barrel in January, supported by the improved global growth outlook, extension of the OPEC+ agreement (limiting oil production through the end of 2018), unplanned outages, and geopolitical tensions,” said the report.
More recently, with rapidly rising US shale production, the price of oil has edged down, according to IMF.
“In this context, while the oil price assumptions for 2018 and 2019 have been revised upward relative to the October 2017 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, the medium-term outlook for oil prices remains subdued,” said the report.
The outlook for oil prices anticipates a rise to above $60 a barrel in 2018–19, a 20 percent increase over 2017, according to IMF forecasts.
IMF experts believe that a further increase in oil prices could undermine consumption, increase fiscal pressures, and worsen external imbalances in most countries.
“For instance, a $10 increase in oil prices relative to the baseline would lead to a worsening in the current account balance by 1 percentage point of GDP across MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) oil importers,” said the report.
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