Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept.21
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Total non-OPEC supply growth was revised down by 60,000 barrels per day to 2.14 million barrels per day in 2018, says the report published by the US JP Morgan Bank.
“We forecast total global liquids supply to increase by 1.95 million barrels per day (-33,000 barrels per day vs. previous growth forecast) in 2018 and by 1.59 million barrels per day in 2019 (+64,000 barrels per day vs. previous growth forecast),” said the report.
In 2019 non-OPEC supply growth was revised up by 470,000 barrels per day to 2.16 million barrels per day from the previous estimates.
“Most of the downward revision in 2018 to the supply growth was due to Brazilian growth being revised down. US supply growth was also revised down marginally in 2018 from the previous forecasts on the back of pipeline constraints leading to a push back in well completions,” said the Bank.
However in 2019, most of the upward revision to non-OPEC supply growth was driven by US, Canada and Brazil. Russian supply was also revised upward in light of their production reaching close to a post-soviet era high.
OPEC crude supply growth was revised up by 32,000 barrels per day in 2018 and revised down significantly by 365,000 barrels per day in 2019 on the back of a drop in Iranian exports due to US led sanctions on Iran.
“In terms of actual annual growth, US continues to take the lion’s share in total non-OPEC supply growth, with 2018 and 2019 US total liquid supply expected to grow by 1.95 and 1.33 million barrels per day, respectively. Hence, we have focused significantly on the US upstream, supply dynamics, logistics, constraints and politics that will drive the growth in the world's second largest crude producer,” said the report.
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