Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept.24
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
Measured on an energy content basis, oil demand is anticipated to grow by almost 15 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in the period between 2015 and 2040 to reach a level above 101 mboe/d in 2040, OPEC said in its World Oil Outlook 2018.
This makes oil the third largest contributor to energy demand growth, surpassed only by gas and ‘other renewables’, said the cartel.
“In relative terms, oil demand is set to grow on average at 0.6 percent per annum, (p.a.) between 2015 and 2040. This is the second lowest growth rate among all major energy sources and only half the growth rate for total energy demand,” said the report.
Therefore, according to OPEC’s estimates, oil’s share in the global energy mix is anticipated to decline, from almost 32 percent in 2015 to below 28 percent in 2040.
Despite this drop, and due to the current high base demand, the cartel believes that oil’s share is estimated to remain higher than any other fuel over the forecast period.
The OPEC Reference Case sees total primary energy demand increasing from 274 mboe/d in 2015 to around 365 mboe/d in 2040, which is an increase of 91 mboe/d or average annual growth of 1.2 percent p.a.
“Almost 95 percent of the increase in the total primary energy demand is accounted for by developing countries (including China and India) with an average annual growth of 1.9 percent p.a. over the forecast period.”
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