Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct.15
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Global oil products demand is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2018 and by 1.1 mbd in 2019, the US JP Morgan Bank believes.
“On the supply side, we expect 2018 total liquids supply to grow by 1.95 mbd in 2018 and by 1.59 mbd in 2019,” said the report released by JP Morgan.
“Our 4Q18 now looks relatively tighter (despite positive stock change to balance) than our previous forecasts, and supply side shocks present significant risk to oil price in our view in 4Q18 or early 2019.”
The revision in global oil demand is in line with downward revision in GDP growth forecast for economies across Europe, LatAm, and Middle East since the bank’s last update and the impact of higher oil prices.
In the latest international oil agencies’ monthly reports, both the OPEC and IEA acknowledged the uncertainty around global growth along with higher crude price is likely to impact oil demand growth in the near term.
The IMF downgraded global growth to 3.7 percent in 2018 and 2019 (previous estimate 3.9 percent). OPEC and IEA revised 2019 demand growth down by 80,000 barrels per day and 110,000 barrels per day, respectively, from their last monthly report.
The 2018 demand growth was also reduced by 110,000 barrels per day by IEA due to a significant correction made to Chinese demand in 2Q18 and 3Q18, while OPEC lowered it marginally by 30,000 barrels per day. However, supply-side risk emanating from Iran and Venezuela continues to support oil prices.
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