Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 16
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Non-OPEC producers will increase oil supply by 2.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its January Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO), Trend reports.
EIA forecasts global liquid fuels production to average 101.8 million b/d in 2019 and consumption to average 101.5 million b/d, which contributes to modest inventory builds. Production growth in 2019 is led by non-OPEC countries, particularly the United States and Brazil, according to the report.
EIA expects non-OPEC producers will increase oil supply by 2.4 million b/d in 2019, which will offset forecast supply declines of 1.0 million b/d from OPEC members.
In 2020, the main drivers of oil production growth are expected to be the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Russia, while OPEC crude oil production is expected to remain flat, according to the report.
EIA estimates that non-OPEC petroleum and other liquid fuels supply increased by 2.5 million b/d in 2018.
“Production growth of 2.2 million b/d in the United States accounted for most of the 2018 supply growth, with Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Brazil collectively adding an additional 0.6 million b/d. EIA expects non-OPEC petroleum and other liquid fuels production to rise by 2.4 million b/d in 2019 and by 1.9 million b/d in 2020. Forecast growth in the United States contributes 1.7 million b/d and 1.2 million b/d, respectively, in each year, with Brazil providing another 0.3 million b/d in 2019 and 0.2 million b/d in 2020,” reads the report.
EIA expects that during the first several months of 2019, Russia will gradually reduce production from record high levels reached during the fourth quarter of 2018.
The expected reductions are a result of the agreement that Russia and other non-OPEC countries reached with OPEC members in December 2018, according to the report.
EIA then expects production growth in Russia to resume in the second half of 2019 and continue into 2020.
Another source of growth for non-OPEC petroleum and other liquid fuels production in the forecast period is Kazakhstan, where EIA forecasts production to ramp up in 2019 to peak production levels at the Kashagan field.
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