Baku, Azerbaijan, Feb. 1
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
In the Base Scenario, global energy demand from transport steadily rises from around 2.7 gigatonnes of oil equivalent (Gtoe) in 2017 to 3.9 Gtoe in 2050, an overall increase of more than 40 percent, Trend reports citing the International Energy Agency (IEA).
IEA says in it’s The Future of Rail report that the largest share of the growth in transport energy demand (both in absolute and relative terms) is in road freight vehicles (including light commercial vehicles and trucks) which, in 2050, consume 600 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) more than today.
The next fastest growing transport modes, in terms of energy demand, are shipping and aviation, which in 2050 consume 200 Mtoe and 170 Mtoe more than in 2017, respectively, according to the report.
IEA forecasts that rail transport energy use (both passenger and freight) increases from around 53 Mtoe in 2017 to almost 90 Mtoe in 2050, an increase of 72 percent. Rail continues to account for some 2 percent of energy demand in the transport sector.
Relative to today, energy demand from all forms of transport combined is lower in 2050 in the Base Scenario in many industrialized countries, such as North America, Europe and Japan, reads the report.
Besides the slow growth (and, in certain countries, decline) in transport activity that is projected in these regions, declining energy demand is achieved primarily through progress in energy efficiency due to the adoption of fuel-economy standards for passenger cars and trucks, according to IEA.
The report shows that in emerging economies, transport energy use increases strongly, reflecting significant growth in transport activity, particularly in road use and aviation, only partially offset by energy efficiency improvements in each transport mode.
India is an important contributor to growth, with its transport energy demand almost quadrupling between 2017 and 2050, IE believes.
Further, the report reads that the majority of rail energy demand growth is met in the form of electricity in the Base Scenario, consumption increasing from close to 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2017 to nearly 700 TWh in 2050.
"Diesel use in rail increases only slightly, from 0.56 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d) in 2017 to 0.58 mb/d in 2050. Passenger rail transport experiences the strongest degree of electrification, influenced by the deployment of urban rail and high-speed rail, both of which are entirely electric. North America is the only region that does not experience significant electrification, since most rail transport in North America is for freight purposes and uses diesel. By 2050, more than half of the global rail diesel demand is consumed by freight trains in North America."
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