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OPEC oil output to decrease by 1.7 million b/d in 2019: forecasts

Oil&Gas Materials 8 May 2019 09:50 (UTC +04:00)

Baku, Azerbaijan, May 8

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

OPEC oil output is expected to decrease by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2019, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its May Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO), Trend reports.

EIA forecasts that crude oil production in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will average 30.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019, down by 1.7 million b/d from 2018.

In 2020, EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to fall by 0.4 million b/d to an average of 29.8 million b/d. Production in Venezuela and Iran account for most of the OPEC output declines in 2019 and in 2020, but EIA expects these declines to be partially offset by production increases from other OPEC members.

Although EIA forecasts Iranian crude oil production and exports to decline, crude oil supply from other countries—including some from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)—are expected to mostly offset the lost Iranian barrels in the coming months.

EIA expects increases in crude oil production in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Russia to largely backfill the lower Iranian production, though these countries will likely wait until their June meeting to make any decisions regarding production increases.

OPEC and its partners decided to extend its production cuts till the end of 2018 in Vienna on November 30, as the oil cartel and its allies step up their attempt to end a three-year supply glut that has savaged crude prices and the global energy industry.

The 5th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting was held in Vienna, Austria, on December 7, 2018.

The meeting participants decided to adjust the overall production by 1.2 million barrels per day, effective as of January 2019 for an initial period of six months. The contributions from OPEC and the voluntary contributions from non-OPEC participating countries of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ will correspond to 0.8 million barrels per day (2.5 percent), and 0.4 million barrels per day (2 percent), respectively.

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