Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept.11
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Non-OPEC supply in 2019 is forecast to grow year-on-year by 1.99 million barrels per day (mb/d), Trend reports citing OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report.
The figure was revised up by 10,000 b/d from the previous month’s assessment, and is expected to average 64.40 mb/d for the year.
The US supply growth forecast was revised down by 65 tb/d compared to last month’s assessment due to lower-than-forecast supply for 2Q19 and downward revisions in the supply forecast for 3Q19 and 4Q19.
Canada’s oil production was revised up by 23 tb/d on a yearly basis, as production levels in 2Q19 exceeded the supply forecast for the quarter which had been based on the mandatory production cuts by the government of Alberta.
Higher oil output in Russia in August led to an upward revision in 3Q19 with supplies now expected to rise by 13 tb/d for 2019. In Kazakhstan, production did not contract as much as previously projected because of reduced maintenance outages
Non-OPEC supply in 2020 is forecast to grow by 2.25 mb/d, revised down by 0.14 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, and is expected to average 66.65 mb/d for the year.
US oil supply accounts for the main downward revision for the next year.
This follows the downturn in drilling and completion (D&C) activities in all regions ̶particularly in the Permian Basin that faced pipeline constraints and a reduction in capital spending, mainly by independent oil companies. The US supply growth forecast was revised down by 165 tb/d to 1.54 mb/d, for an average of 20.03 mb/d in 2020, with a decline projected mainly for crude oil rather than for natural gas liquids (NGLs). Part of this downward revision is offset by an upward revision of 29 tb/d made for Mexico’s oil supply forecast in 2020.
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