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Non-OPEC oil supply growth revised down

Oil&Gas Materials 14 November 2019 17:05 (UTC +04:00)
Non-OPEC oil supply growth revised down

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov.14

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

The non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast for 2020 was revised down by 36,000 barrels per day (b/d) and is now projected to grow by 2.17 million barrels per day (mb/d) for an average of 66.46 mb/d, Trend reports citing OPEC’s Oil Market Report.

This is mainly due to the downward revision in the US oil supply forecast as well as a minor downward revision for India’s supply, said the cartel.

The US, Brazil, Norway, Russia, Canada, Kazakhstan and Australia are expected to be the main growth drivers for next year, while Mexico, Indonesia Egypt, the UK and Colombia are forecast to see the largest declines, reads the report.

The 2020 non-OPEC supply forecast remains subject to many uncertainties, including a continuation of investment discipline by US independent companies, pipeline constraints in Canada, drilling and completion activity levels in the US, unplanned outages, delayed start-ups and unexpected maintenance.

This is while the non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate for 2019 has remained unchanged from the previous monthly report at 1.82 mb/d for an annual average of 64.30 mb/d.

Indeed, the upward revisions to production data of Canada, the UK and Kazakhstan were fully offset by downward adjustments to production in the US, Indonesia, Denmark, India, Malaysia, Brazil and China, the cartel explained.

Canada’s oil output averaged, 5.37 mb/d in the first three quarters of the year, and was higher than the government of Alberta’s mandatory production cut.

On the other hand, US liquids output in 3Q19 was stagnant compared to 2Q19 at an average of 18.3 mb/d. Hence, US oil supply growth in 2019 was revised down to 1.62 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment.

The US, Brazil, China, the UK, Australia and Canada are estimated to be the key drivers of growth in 2019, while Mexico and Norway are projected to see the largest declines.

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