BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.15
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The recovery in global refining throughput is expected to slow from August to October due to the impact of hurricane shutdowns in the US Gulf and seasonal maintenance elsewhere, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“Chinese and Indian refinery runs fell in July and Hurricane Laura cut short the US recovery. The hurricane shutdowns resulted in only a brief spike in refinery margins, which remain depressed due to weak demand for premium transport fuels.
“OECD industry stocks rose by 13.5 mb (0.44 mb/d) to 3 225 mb in July. For the year to July, they have increased by 334.5 mb, at an average rate of 1.57 mb/d. Preliminary data for “August show that industry crude stocks fell in all three regions: -19.3 mb in the US, -9.8 mb in Europe and -1.3 mb in Japan (in total, nearly 1 mb/d). In August, volumes of crude in floating storage fell sharply by 59.9 mb (1.93 mb/d) to 168.4 mb, but early reports suggest volumes might rise in September.
“Global oil supply rose by 1.1 mb/d in August to 91.7 mb/d as OPEC+ cuts eased, but was down 9.3 mb/d on a year ago. Following two months of gains, the recovery in countries outside the OPEC+ deal stalled in August. Production in the United States fell by 0.4 mb/d as Hurricane Laura forced precautionary shut-ins. Total non-OPEC supply is expected to drop by 2.6 mb/d in 2020, before posting a modest 0.5 mb/d recovery next year.
“A resurgence of Covid-19 cases in many countries, local lockdown measures, continued teleworking and the weak aviation sector led to downward revisions of our demand estimates for 3Q20 and 4Q20 by 0.1 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d, respectively. For 2020, demand will fall versus 2019 by 8.4 mb/d, more than the 8.1 mb/d seen in the last Report. In 2021, demand will grow by 5.5 mb/d. China continues to recover strongly while India is showing renewed weakness,” reads the IEA report.
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