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Global demand for jet fuel to peak around 2030

Oil&Gas Materials 23 October 2020 10:19 (UTC +04:00)
Global demand for jet fuel to peak around 2030

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct.23

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

Jet fuel demand is currently significantly below previrus levels as the number of flights has plummeted in the wake of virus-related travel restrictions, Trend reports citing Capital Economics, UK-based research and consulting company.

“The surge in video conferencing means that is questionable whether business travel will ever fully recover. International business travel was already in decline before the virus. Moreover, ongoing travel restrictions and concerns about infection from the virus mean that it could take some years for leisure air travel to return to pre-virus levels. There is also the risk that the cost of air travel may also increase due to higher cleaning costs, social distancing rules and less competition in the industry.

“Environmental concerns may also weigh on jet fuel consumption. As part of this, efforts will be made to move the aviation industry away from oil-fuelled engines to alternatives such as biofuel, hydrogen or electric engines. That said, in the near term, emerging countries may still be raising their jet fuel consumption as incomes and populations rise. In the past, the number of passenger flights per capita tended to grow as incomes increased.

Overall, we expect global demand for jet fuel to peak around 2030 at 8.5m bpd before declining to around 6m bpd by 2050.

“One of the other uses of oil is as a source of electricity generation. For almost all countries, oilbased power generation peaked in the 1970s as oil prices soared. Admittedly, oil is still used for power generation in a few countries – notably Saudi Arabia – but most are trying to shift towards alternative fuels,” reads the report.

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Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn

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