BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 10
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.5 million b/d for all of 2021, which is up by 5.3 million b/d from 2020, Trend reports citing EIA.
EIA forecasts that consumption will increase by another 3.8 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.3 million b/d.
EIA estimates that the world consumed 95.9 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels in February, which is down 1.6 million b/d from February 2020. If confirmed by final consumption data, the 1.6 million b/d decline would represent the smallest year-over-year decline since the COVID-19 outbreak began affecting oil consumption in January 2020.
EIA expects OPEC crude oil production will average 25.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in April, which is similar to expected production for March and down 1.6 million b/d from EIA’s forecast for April OPEC production in last month’s STEO. EIA expects OPEC crude oil production will rise to 26.6 million b/d in May. This increase reflects Saudi Arabia ending voluntary cuts of 1.0 million b/d, along with the relaxation of cuts that were extended through April at the March 4 OPEC+ meeting. This forecast assumes OPEC will produce 27.9 million b/d on average in the second half of 2021, as OPEC+ generally increases crude oil output to supply rising global oil consumption.
The OPEC+ extension of existing supply cuts through April added significantly to near-term upward oil price pressures. Following the meeting, the Brent crude oil spot price settled at $67/b on March 4, up 4 percent from the day before. EIA expects Brent prices will average between $65-$70/b during March and April, more than $10/b above EIA’s expectation last month. EIA continues to expect downward crude oil price pressures will emerge in the coming months as the oil market becomes more balanced. Brent crude oil prices in the forecast average $58/b in the second half of 2021.
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