BAKU, Azerbaijan, Apr.27
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
BP expects global gas demand to recover to above 2019 levels, and LNG demand to increase as a result of higher Asian imports, Trend reports citing the company.
“The oil market is set to continue its rebalancing process. Global stocks are expected to decline and reach historical levels (in terms of days of forward cover) at the end of 2021. Oil demand is expected to recover in 2021 due to strong growth in US and China and as the distribution of vaccinations gains momentum and lockdown restrictions are gradually lifted. OPEC+ behaviour is a key factor in oil prices and market rebalancing. Industry refining margins are expected to improve over the course of 2021 compared to the first quarter, with the recovery in demand and the closure of some capacity supporting higher utilization rates compared to the exceptionally low levels seen last year. However, refining margins are expected to remain weaker than pre-COVID-19 levels,” said the company.
BP expects second quarter reported upstream production to be lower than the first quarter mainly due to divestments and seasonal maintenance activities, primarily in the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea and Trinidad, partly offset by the ramp-up of the Raven and KG D6 R Cluster major projects.
Within this, we expect both gas & low carbon energy and oil production & operations to be lower. – We expect higher product demand across our customer businesses in the second quarter as restrictions begin to ease and vaccination rollouts continue. This should help provide some support to industry refining margins. However, realized refining margins are expected to show a smaller improvement due to the slower recovery in diesel and jet demand and a narrower North American heavy crude oil differential. In addition, we expect a higher level of turnaround activity in our refining portfolio.
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