BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec.16
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The total capex for ocean energy is reduced from $427 billion in 2018 to $344 billion in 2050, Trend reports with reference to DNV GL.
“Even more interesting is the mix, as oil capex has a share of 48 percent in 2018 but only 4 percent in 2050, while offshore wind’s share increases from 3 percent in 2018 to 66 percent in 2050. For gas, the share reduces from 49 percent to 30 percent in the same period. Offshore oil and gas production will reduce by one third between 2018 and 2050; hence, the decrease in opex is less than for capex. Offshore wind and other renewable energy sources require high capex but are not as demanding on opex,” said the company in its latest report.
DNV GL experts estimate that total ocean energy opex will be on the same level in 2050 as in 2018 at around USD 1 trillion, with 10 percent coming from offshore wind.
“As offshore wind capacity is building up, the workforce will increase in the sector. Our forecast shows that new direct employment in offshore wind operations and maintenance will offset the reduction in direct employment in upstream oil and gas operations and a total workforce in the ocean-based energy sector of 559,000 in 2018 will increase to 774,000 in 2050,” the report says.
The transition towards renewable ocean-based energy production is reflected in the expenditures in the sector. When forecasting capex, the company includes the upstream capacity additions (installations) for offshore oil and gas, not considering distribution infrastructure like pipelines. For offshore wind installations, the costs of the power generation unit, foundation and grid connection are included, while the grid and onshore distribution is not. For oil and gas, the capex per barrel of oil or per m³ gas is expected to be stable or even to increase for many regions, while the capex per KWh for offshore wind is on a clear decreasing trend towards 2050.
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