BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec.27
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Global electricity consumption is expected to exceed the 2019 level as of 2021, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“In 2020, the decline in worldwide electricity consumption (-0.5%) and low natural gas prices caused coal-fired generation to drop 3.8% (‑380 TWh), which reduced consumption of both steam coal (-3.6% to 5 735 Mt) and lignite (-13% to 621 Mt). Global electricity consumption is expected to rebound 6% in 2021, exceeding the 2019 level, as economic recovery around the globe and adverse weather conditions boost demand at the same time as renewable power generation is lower than expected due to meagre rainfall and weak wind in some regions,” said the IEA.
The agency notes that China’s electricity demand growth for 2021 is estimated at 10%, reflecting the country’s strong economic recovery as well as a cold snap in the north and a warmer-than-average summer.
“Renewable energy and nuclear power generation are expected to meet ~39% of the increase in electricity demand in 2021, while residual growth of more than 800 TWh will be covered by coal and gas. A gas supply shortage and resulting record-high gas prices support a rebound in coal-based power generation, especially in the United States and the European Union, where shares of coal in power generation have been declining for years. Consequently, global coal-fired power generation is expected to increase 9% in 2021, recovering to above 2019 levels,” reads the IEA report.
For 2022-2024, global power demand is expected to increase ~2 099 TWh (annual average growth of 2.4%), of which a large share (91%) will be covered by additional renewable electricity generation.
“We expect a gap of more than 220 TWh to be filled by coal- and gas-fired power generation. With forward prices pointing to a gas price drop, we expect gas to meet most of the remaining demand while coal-fired power generation stays stable over the period. As coal is the cornerstone of the electricity supplies of India, China and some Southeast Asian countries, we estimate coal-fired power generation during 2021-2024 to increase 4.1% in China, 11% in India and 12% in Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, a return to declining trajectories is expected in the United States (-21%) and the European Union (-30%),” said the IEA.
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