BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 15
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Depending on the size of the supply disruption and its duration, global oil demand could lose between 1 mb/d and 2 mb/d of growth in 2022 and 2023, Trend reports with reference to Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
“Our reference growth projections remain robust in both 2022 and 2023 at 2.8 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively, but the demand outlook is highly vulnerable to the duration, magnitude and macro-effects of the supply shock. In terms of regions, OECD Europe appears the hardest hit region throughout, contributing to total OECD demand losing 0.5 mb/d of growth in our reference case and the losses extending to 1.2 mb/d in the worst case, as y/y growth falls to negative territory in 2023,” OIES said in its latest report.
OIES believes that the negative impacts in non-OECD demand become more acute towards the end of the year and extend to 2023 with some 0.9 mb/d of growth at risk.
“Nearly half of the total loses in global oil demand will be impacting fuels for industrial use as high input costs restrict industrial activity and manufacturing, followed by the demand for transport fuels and in particular road fuels and jet that each will account for 20 percent of a potential negative demand response due to high retail prices. The latter will be exacerbated by the pressure on product markets, especially on middle distillates availability and prices, and to a lesser extent gasoline,” the report says.
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