BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 14. The recovery in Russian output and refining activity in May/June has led Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES) to revise down the size of the expected disruptions in Russian oil production by year-end to 1.8 mb/d from 2.6 mb/d previously in the company’s reference case, Trend reports with reference to OIES.
“In June, Russian production is estimated to have risen m/m by 550,000 b/d to 10.7 mb/d, rebounding to 300,000 b/d below pre-war levels from 1 mb/d in April. In our reference case Russian output holds steady in July above 10.5 mb/d and starts slipping again from August-onwards as EU sanctions come into force. We expect disruptions to peak at 2.1 mb/d in February 2023 and average at 2 mb/d for the year. This constitutes the upper bound of the expected range of Russian crude shut-ins. On the lower bound, Russian disruption is expected to reach 1 mb/d by year-end and averages 1.2 mb/d in 2023. Russian crude exports in June fell m/m by 130,000 b/d to 5.15 mb/d as domestic intake rose but remained 235,000 b/d higher than the pre-war January/February average (4.91 mb/d),” reads the latest OIES report.
OIES analysts note that product exports in June saw the largest m/m increase since February by 130,000 b/d, rebounding to 330,000 b/d below a year ago levels and to less than 100,000 b/d below 2019 levels.
“Preliminary data suggest that refinery runs in June also recovered by around 500,000 b/d as Russian refiners came back from maintenance and products demand rose domestically and abroad,” says the report.
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