BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 21. Notwithstanding the good progress in filling storage to date, simulations carried out by the European Commission and ENTSOG indicate that in case of a full disruption as of July until the winter 2023 would lead to a storage filling to fall short of the 80 percent target for November set out in the new EU Storage Regulation, Trend reports with reference to the European Commission.
The simulations suggest that storage could be as low as 65 percent to 71 percent by the beginning of the heating season.
In a first scenario the gap to satisfy the gas demand during the winter would be 30 bcm under average weather conditions and continuously high LNG supply, compared to an average total EU August-March consumption of 300 bcm. In this scenario, the storage would run nearly empty at the end of March 2023, leaving therefore no buffer for the gas season 2023-2024
In a second scenario, storage would remain at a minimal level of 15% at the end of March 2023, and the demand gap would correspond to 45 bcm during the winter. Preparing for the following winter season, assuming persistently tight international gas markets, replenishing storage in the summer of 2023 is likely to be very challenging. Storage filling levels in October 2023 would only reach 41 percent in the first scenario and 56 percent in the second scenario.
An unusually cold winter or reduced gas imports from other sources (for instance due to a rebound in economic growth in a large market like China), would increase the risk of having to face the need for further drastic reductions at some point over this period. Abrupt cuts would damage specific branches of those industries which have little room to switch to other fuels – for instance, where gas is used as feedstock for industrial processes – or to reduce production without heavy damage. Availability of gas for protected customers, notably households, representing less than 37 percent of total EU consumption, would in principle not be impacted directly by large scale Russian disruptions. However, this assumes the absence of other unforeseen events.
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