BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 29. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has shared forecasts for global gas demand in three scenarios, Trend reports October 29 with reference to the agency’s World Energy Outlook (WEO).
Natural gas sees the largest slowdown of any fuel in the STEPS compared to the WEO‐2021, with annual growth falling to around 0.4 percent from 2021 to 2030, ending the decade with demand at around 4 400 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year.
Concerns about enduring high prices have lasting effects across all sectors. New gas power plant construction slows, with countries opting for other sources to maintain system adequacy and flexibility while accelerating renewables in parallel. Energy demand in industry also slows in the face of a stronger push for the electrification of new industrial capacity. Policy interest in compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles wanes, and global efforts to reduce natural gas use accelerate the electrification of heating in buildings.
In the APS, natural gas use begins to decline this decade and demand falls to less than 3 900 bcm in 2030, an 8 percent reduction from current levels. Emerging market and developing economies still see growth, but this is more than outweighed by advanced economies using 460 bcm less natural gas in 2030 than today, with the decreases primarily in the power and buildings sectors.
In the NZE Scenario, natural gas declines to under 3 300 bcm by 2030 as policies restrict the sale of fossil fuel boilers in buildings after 2025 and as the use of renewables in power generation accelerates.
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