BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov.22. The declines in gasoline demand in key developed markets will be balanced out by sustained growth in demand among emerging markets in 2023, Trend reports Nov.22 via the company.
“A relatively strong economic outlook for the emerging markets supports our positive outlook for the gasoline demand in these markets. The emerging markets will be the key driver behind gasoline demand growth next year with India, Iran and Nigeria expected to see the largest uptick in the demand for this fuel. Hence, the headline global total gasoline consumption is estimated to remain stable next year, maintaining 2022 levels,” reads the report released by Fitch Solutions.
The report reveals that on the supply side, refining capacity continues to dwindle in the key markets, with the US available capacity in a downward trend accelerated by Covid-19 pandemic.
“However, the elevated margins over 2022 have pushed their utilisation rates higher, allowing for higher output. The supply picture in the US has improved over 2022, on the back of higher utilisation rates supported by record high crack spreads. Although the expansion of ExxonMobil's Beaumont refinery and the opening of the new Davis Refinery of Meridian Energy Group are set to add respectively 250,000b/d and 49,500b/d of refining capacity in 2023, the planned closures of Phillips 66 Santa Maria Refinery (48,000b/d) and LyondellBasell Houston Refinery (264,000b/d) will bring the net change in refining capacity to -12,000b/d next year. Shrinking capacity constitutes a bullish factor for gasoline prices.”
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