BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.11. The decline in Russian oil supplies will be offset by growing production of some other non-OPEC countries, Trend reports with reference to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
“We forecast that world production of petroleum and other liquid fuels will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023 and 1.7 million b/d in 2024. This increase reflects large growth in several non-OPEC countries and in OPEC output that more than offset 1.5 million b/d of declines in Russia’s production over the forecast period. We forecast that the United States and other non-OPEC producers outside of Russia will add 2.4 million b/d of oil production in 2023 and an additional 1.1 million b/d in 2024,” reads the latest EIA report.
The report reveals that the largest source of non-OPEC production growth over the forecast period is the United States, which contributes 40 percent of growth in 2023 and 60 percent of growth in 2024.
“Outside of the United States, other major sources of growth in non-OPEC liquid fuels production come from Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Norway. We expect that these sources of growth in non-OPEC liquid fuels supply will offset declines in Russia‘s oil production. We forecast that Russia’s petroleum and other liquid fuels production will decline to 9.5 million b/d in 2023, from 10.9 million b/d in 2022, and then average 9.4 million b/d in 2024. The extent to which European Union sanctions, other sanctions, and the G7 price cap will affect Russia’s crude oil and petroleum product exports and production remains uncertain,” the EIA analysts note.
The G7's $60/b price cap on Russian crude and the EU's own embargo on seaborne Russian crude came into effect on Dec. 5. The price cap and EU embargo will extend to Russian oil product exports starting Feb. 5.
Russian-origin crude loadings from Russian ports averaged 2.65 million b/d in December, down 431,000 b/d, or 14 percent, from November levels, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea.
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