Baku, Azerbaijan, February 14
By Fakhri Vakilov-Trend:
Uzbek Central Bank will allow a revision of the inflation forecast for 2019 at the beginning of the third quarter under certain conditions, Trend reports with reference to Uzbek Central Bank.
Currently, the regulator predicts annual inflation at 13.5–15.5 percent, but may revise the values while maintaining the current monetary policy and budget spending within the established parameters, as well as the qualitative implementation of the new tax system.
In the first quarter, the Central Bank expects a relatively high inflationary background with a peak annual inflation rate due to the rising cost price of local goods and services.
In addition, during the period of adaptation of business entities to new taxation conditions, short-term volatility of inflation can also be observed, with an increase and a subsequent decrease in prices.
“This effect makes it difficult to develop more accurate forecasts,” said the message of the Central Bank.
Earlier, the Central Bank presented two scenarios for the development of the country's economy: basic and alternative. When implementing the baseline scenario, inflation is expected to decrease to 10–12 percent in 2020. It is planned to bring the annual inflation to unambiguous values, starting from 2021.
In the alternative scenario, given the deterioration of external and internal conditions, as well as the failure to achieve the expected results of structural reforms, inflation may accelerate to 17–18 percent.
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