BAKU, Azerbaijan, Apr. 9
By Ilkin Seyfaddini – Trend:
The World Bank has published a forecast of the Central Asian economies, according to which the gross domestic product (GDP) of Uzbekistan in 2020 will grow by 1.6 percent, Trend reports citing the World Bank.
Economic growth, according to the bank's experts, will decline sharply in 2020 as a result of a significant reduction in foreign trade and domestic economic shocks.
Lower tax revenues and additional crisis spending are expected to increase the fiscal deficit to 5.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 4.7 percent of GDP in 2021 and 5.5 percent in 2022.
Reduced tax revenues and additional expenditures to mitigate the crisis are expected to raise the budget deficit to 5.6 percent of GDP in 2020 and 4.7 percent in 2021.
The effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on the drivers of poverty reduction, such as income growth and remittances, is likely to increase poverty levels in 2020.
"Uzbekistan’s macroeconomic buffers, safety nets, and community institutions and anti-crisis policy measures,are expected to help mitigate the worst effects of the crisis on the poor", noted WB.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has previously published a more optimistic forecast for Uzbekistan's economic growth. In its flagship annual economic publication Asian Development Review 2020, the ADB forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Uzbekistan at 4.7 percent in 2020, down from 5.6 percent last year.
ADB forecasts GDP growth to 5.8 percent in 2021, as reforms will stimulate growth in agriculture, industry and services.
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