BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec. 5
By Zeyni Jafarov – Trend:
A flexible approach to the imposition of special quarantine regime in Azerbaijan amid coronavirus pandemic allowed maintaining a fairly high level of economic activity in Baku, providing 68 percent of total GDP, Gulnara Haydarshina, Deputy Head of the Market Analysis Department of Gazprombank, told Trend.
According to Haydarshina, in the index of economic activity of the CIS capitals, Baku accounts for 72 percent, according to this indicator, the capital of Azerbaijan is ahead of Moscow, Bishkek, as well as Yerevan, which has the lowest economic activity index, equal to 65 percent.
“However, weakening oil prices and the COVID-related restrictive measures in Azerbaijan had a direct impact on the decline in GDP in all quarters of 2020. So, starting from the second quarter of 2020, the quarantine regime introduced in the country and the decline in prices for Brent crude oil led to a shift in GDP dynamics to a zone of negative values. During this period, Azerbaijan's GDP decreased by 6.5 percent,” said Haydarshina.
Regarding the third quarter of this year, the deputy head noted that thanks to the recovery in oil prices, the weakening of quarantine measures and the adaptation of the population and industries of the non-oil sector of the economy to restrictive measures, the level of decline in Azerbaijan's GDP began to soften and amounted to 5.1 percent.
“The recovery of domestic economic activity during this period is also evidenced by the growth of transactions through the national payment system. So, by the end of the third quarter of 2020, this figure exceeded the pre-crisis level by 6 percent, she said.
“Despite the extension of the restrictive quarantine measures in Azerbaijan, we assume that the country's economic recovery will continue in the final quarter of this year. According to the basic scenarios, our forecast provides for a decrease in Azerbaijan's GDP to 3 percent, and the total decrease in GDP in Azerbaijan will be 3.7 percent,” Haydarshina added.