BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec. 14
By Zeyni Jafarov - Trend:
The decline in Azerbaijan's GDP observed in the first 11 months of 2020 slightly exceeded expectations amid the recovery in oil prices and the adaptation of non-oil sectors to quarantine measures, Gulnara Haydarshina, Deputy Head of the Market Analysis Department of Gazprombank, told Trend.
"Nevertheless, during the reporting period, the oil GDP decreased by 6.5 percent, and the non-oil - by 2.9 percent. As a result, the decline in Azerbaijan's GDP rose by 0.5 percentage points in annual terms. These dynamics indicate that economic activity in Azerbaijan slowed down again in November this year, and this was probably due to the extension of the quarantine regime until the end of January 2021," Haydarshina said.
The deputy's head noted that under the baseline scenario, in which the average price of Brent oil was estimated at $43 per barrel, GDP was expected to decline by no more than 3.7 percent.
"At the moment, Gazprombank predicts a decrease in Azerbaijan's GDP at the end of 2020 at the level of 4 percent, which is one of the best indicators in the post-Soviet space," said the Gazprombank representative.
Haydarshina also stressed that the baseline scenario for the current year assumed the restoration of economic activity in Azerbaijan towards the end of the third quarter of 2020, upon the lifting of restrictive measures.