BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 12
By Zeyni Jafarov - Trend:
Despite the continued high global uncertainty regarding the coronavirus pandemic, 2021 is expected to be the year of recovery, Andrey Melashchenko, economist of Renaissance Capital investment company covering the CIS, told Trend.
"Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2021 is projected at 2.9 percent after a 4.5-percent decline in 2020," the economist added.
"The progress with vaccination, the gradual easing of quarantine regime restrictions and improvement of business expectations will support the smooth recovery of economic activity in Azerbaijan," Melashchenko said.
The economist stressed that the dynamics of oil prices remains an important factor for Azerbaijan both from the point of view of the economy and markets.
"The share of the oil and gas sector in GDP is over 40 percent, in export of goods - over 90 percent and in budget revenues - about 50 percent," Melashchenko added.
"The baseline forecast includes an oil price worth $50 on average for 2021," the economist added. "In general, this gives an impetus for the economy's income and investor sentiment."
"However, the deteriorating situation with the virus, including the emergence of new strains, remains the main risk for the energy market," Melashchenko added. "At the same time, positive trends are possible in terms of the world oil prices."
"An increase in the cost of raw materials during 2021 will have a positive effect on the growth of Azerbaijan's GDP," the economist said. "The country's economic growth will accelerate by an average of 0.6 percent out of the main scenario, reaching 3.5 percent."
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