Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov.13
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
After 2025, members of OPEC are central to meeting oil demand growth, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Outlook 2018.
“US tight oil reaches 9.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the mid-2020s before declining slowly. But tight oil increases elsewhere, most notably in Argentina,” said the report.
In the New Policies Scenario (NPS), global oil demand growth slows but does not peak before 2040.
“Demand in 2040 is 106 mb/d, 11 mb/d greater than today. Demand in 2040 has been revised up by more than 1 b/d compared with last year’s Outlook largely because of faster near-term growth and changes to fuel efficiency policies in the United States,” said IEA.
The report said that China becomes the world’s single largest consumer of oil in the 2030s and the largest net oil importer in history, importing over 13 mb/d in 2040.
“The United States dominates production growth to 2025: production increases by over 5 mb/d during that period to a peak of 18.5 mb/d. US production then starts to fall and OPEC steadily increases its share of total oil supply,” said IEA.
There is a major shift in the geography of oil demand in the NPS.
“Demand in developing economies grows by 18 mb/d to 2040 while demand in advanced economies drops by nearly 10 mb/d. There is also 3 mb/d growth in oil use in international aviation and shipping,” said the report.
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