Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 18 / corr. Trend E.Kosolapova /
The ruling Nur Otan party led by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev will retain the most votes at the new parliament of Kazakhstan, experts believe.
"No matter what party would be the second, and perhaps third in the parliament of Kazakhstan, a ruling presidential party Nur Otan will hold the majority of votes," Dosym Satpayev, Kazakh political scientist said to Trend over telephone.
A group of members of the Majilis of Kazakhstan (the lower house of parliament) sent an appeal to the head of state on Nov. 10 to dissolve the Majilis and appoint the early parliamentary elections.
Majilis elections were to be held in August 2012, but 53 out of 107 members of the lower house, referring to the head of state, consider it necessary to dissolve the House earlier. This decision was grounded by an intention to pass from one party to multiparty parliament as soon as possible. In accordance with the law, dated 2008, the next-in-term parliament should be formed of at least two political parties.
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev signed the decree dissolving the lower house of parliament - the Majilis on Nov. 16. The early elections are scheduled for January 15, 2012.
According to Satpayev, the parliament will be named multi-party only formally, but in fact the majority of its members will be from the People's Democratic Party Nur Otan party, which had a majority in the previous Parliament.
If the government seeks the processes to lead to the illusion of a multiparty system, then in fact nothing will change, and those hoping for it will experience a great disappointment, he said.
According to the adviser of the Kazakh president Ermukhamet Yertysbayev, the second party in the Kazakh parliament will be the Democratic Party of Kazakhstan Ak Jol which is also loyal to the president, ITAR-TASS reported.
"The existing seven-percent electoral threshold is very high, and the party, which will rely on the protestor electorate, will hardly be able to get there. Therefore, there are tiny chances for any third party to get into parliament," Yertysbayev said.
Nicolas de Pedro, an expert on Central Asia, shares Yertysbayev's opinion about the fact that Ak Jol will become the second party represented in Parliament.
According to de Pedro, the Kazakh authorities are aimed at having a two-party parliament.
However, de Pedro believes that the second party will also be a pro-presidential. And Ak Jol fits this description best.
"After the election of new leader of this party Azat Peruasheva in July Ak Jol took the course of pro-presidential party," De Pedro said to Trend.
Before joining the Ak Jol Peruashev was a member of the president's party Nur Otan.
Therefore, according to de Pedro, the changes in parliament will be more external than real.