Azerbaijan, Baku, May 10 / Trend V. Zhavoronkova/
In most of Central Asia, economic growth continued decelerating in response to the global economic slowdown, the latest Regional Economic Prospects report of the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says.
The deepening slowdown in Russia may have a further negative impact on growth in this region, mainly through the impact on remittance flows, which have so far performed strongly.
However, according to the report, large natural resource exploration projects remain broadly on track throughout the region, despite certain delays, and are expected to make a sizable contribution to growth in 2013 and over the medium term.
In Kazakhstan, GDP growth slowed from 7.5 per cent in 2011 to around 5 per cent in 2012 and 4.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2013 owing to more difficult external environment.
It is expected to remain around this level in 2013, as production capacity at new oil and gas fields may come on stream slower than originally expected.
In Kyrgyzstan, the case with the Kumtor gold mine in early 2012 caused a significant temporary drop in gold production and resulted in an output contraction of around 1 per cent for the year as whole.
In Tajikistan, GDP growth remained strong at 7.5 per cent in 2012, broadly unchanged from 2011.
However, growth is expected to slow down to 5 per cent in 2013 on account of slowing remittances, particularly from Russia. Moreover, the growth outlook in Tajikistan is particularly uncertain given fundamental weakness of the banking system and continued tensions with Uzbekistan that may lead to further interruptions in gas supplies and railway shipments. Inflation picked up somewhat from 5 per cent in August 2012 to around 6.4 per cent in March 2013 owing to higher food prices.
Turkmenistan continues to experience a buoyant economic expansion with GDP growth of 11.1 per cent in 2012, driven by large public construction projects and increased gas exports to China and Iran. GDP growth is expected to reach 10 per in 2013 and remain strong over the medium term, supported by exploration of Turkmenistan's abundant gas reserves and further diversification of export routes.
Uzbekistan's GDP growth remained strong at 8.2 per cent in 2012 largely driven by public spending, diversification of gas export routes and accommodating monetary conditions. Growth is expected to slow down somewhat to around 7.5 per cent in 2013.