Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 12
By Elena Kosolapova - Trend: Kazakhstan's pressure on Armenia within Eurasian Economic Union could help to solve Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, European expert Michael Laubsch believes.
Astana on the one hand is trying to convince Armenia, that membership could benefit the Caucasian state, but also using this prospect as a tool to show Yerevan that they have to leave the occupied Azerbaijani territories, the director of the Eurasian Transition Group, Laubsch told Trend.
"This could, at least in theory, be a helpful positive pressure action to solve the crisis in Nagorno- Karabakh and to return to the territorial integration of Azerbaijan," he said.
Concerning the Eurasian Union's members the expert noted that Minsk needs a close economic and trade relation with Moscow and depends on Russia. Meanwhile Kazakhstan will unlikely allow the union to become a new form of the Soviet Union.
"I doubt that Astana will allow the EEU to become a new Soviet bloc, where Moscow will dictate the rules," he said.
Laubsch noted that the West is a bit skeptical about the Eurasian Union project, but believes the economic power of its members is not seen as a threat to their economic interests.
"With regard to the political future of the organization, the West will focus on how the Kremlin sees its role and how Moscow will define the future of the EEU," he said.
It is too early to talk about the future of the Eurasian Union yet, since it is just a newborn, Laubsch said. He noted that it took over five decades to build a strong European Union, also having in mind the current crisis of the euro and the economic power of some member states. Moreover, the national interests of Eurasian Union's member states differ to some degrees and a regional big player like Kazakhstan is not interested in risking its national political interests. Russia on the other hand is only interested in a united bloc when having the leadership in decision-making etc., he said.
"Therefore I doubt that the EEU will have a more or less united position within the near future...the upcoming years will show, how this new organization will develop," the expert said.
Russia, which is the leading member of this group, and the political power horse of the union, has the most potent economy, being the only country in this club with geopolitical interests, according to Laubsch.
Meanwhile it has to show its ability to accept the other members as equal, because Kazakhstan is more than cautious concerning its sovereignty and already underlined that the EEU would not become a political union, but only defines a common trade and business region, with no impact on the supranational political level.
"An organization like the EEU can only be successful when all members have the same rights, the same purpose and the same vision," Laubsch said. "As the EEU is so far 'just a club' for a trade and customs union, I don't see any signs that it could also become a united bloc in the international relations system. How and if the Kremlin will try to influence the EEU on the political level, we have to see."
The expert also doubts that the EEU could become a so-called rival for the EU, because countries like Russia or Kazakhstan will not jeopardize its trade relations with Western Europe. Moreover, the major future investment in a country like Kazakhstan will still come from Western Europe, so they are not interested in shifting their partnerships.
Concerning future Kyrgyzstan's membership in the EEU, Laubsch believes that it could bring some benefits to the country, especially in terms of trade and energy delivery.
"Seeing the charts of trade of goods between the two neighbors Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, it could help Bishkek and its small enterprises, farmers, etc. Also, the delivery of energy from Russia and Kazakhstan to Kyrgyzstan could help Bishkek in securing this sector," the expert said.
At the same time, he noted that Kyrgyz economy is still very weak and it could be a risk especially for Russia and Kazakhstan, having another unstable partner in the club, which does not bring much financial and economic power into the club.
On January 1, 2015 the treaty between the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus authorizing the EEU went into effect. Armenia joined a day later, while Kyrgyzstan is set to join in May. Membership talks with Tajikistan are ongoing.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan.
As a result of the ensuing war, in 1992 Armenian armed forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.
The two countries signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Russia, France and the US are currently holding peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented four UN Security Council resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding regions.
Edited by CN