Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 30 / Trend D. Khatinoglu /
Though seven months passed after the presidential elections in Iran, the opposition's protests against the election results and the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are not ceased. According to experts, the death of eight people and the arrest of 300 people during clashes between police and participants of protests on the day of Ashura (December 27) show that people will not retreat from thier claims.
The situation in Iran reached a critical point. The opposition to the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad administration and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, will not back down without reaching their goals, Iranian expert with the RAND Corporation in Washington DC, professor in the George Washington University, Alireza Nader, told Trend .
Iranian expert with the RAND Corporation in Washington DC, Nader said Khomenei must either decide to reach a compromise with the opposition or order harsher crackdowns.
"Both strategies are risky for the Iranian government- backing down now would give the opposition a big boost, and harsher crackdowns may lead to increased protests," Nader said.
Deutsche Welle radio Persian desk head, an expert on Iran, Jamshid Faruqi said Ayatollah Hamnei is obliged to draw attention to the protests of people and the opposition. Attempts of the authorities to force the opposition to be silent in a rude manner will give the opposite effect, Faruqi told Trend over phone on Tuesday. "At present, the situation is very dangerous. While observing the events carefully, we will see that first people and the opposition carried out peace rally. But after a tough reaction of the authorities, people protest in the most aggressive and radical way now," Iranian expert Faruqi working in Germany said.
A wide protest was made due to the results of the presidential elections on June 12. Candidates reformists Mir Hussein Musavi and Mehdi Karrubi, rivaling with Ahmadinejad, do not recognize the legitimacy of his power. Despite the murder of many people and the arrest of thousands of opposition members by the authorities, the protests have not been ceased. Aggressive and brutal reaction of the authorities has been sharply criticized by the UN Human Rights Council, Amnesty İnternational, the European Union and the United States.
Nader stressed that theocracy actually has shallow roots in Iran. It is a recent phenomenon in Iranian history. "Moreover, there has been a tradition of public protest in Iran, especially for the past one hundred years. The Shah was overthrown by a mass revolution- what we are seeing in Iran today should not have been unexpected," Nader said.
In Iran people have begun a major campaign against the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and overthrew him in 1979. According to experts, the actions took place after Ahmadinejad was elected president for the second term. These actions have no analogue after the Islamic revolution in Iran.
Another analyst for Iran, Hussein G. Askari former consultant of United Nations, said the Iranian Government has lost all religious credibility.
"The Iranian Government will not be able to hide behind Islam. After the June elections the Iranian authority does not have legitimacy despite the people do not have a right to choose the ruler. The regime thinks that it is fixed by God to control people and has the right to choose the head of state for people", professor in the George Washington University, Askari said.
June 13, the day after the elections, Ayatollah Khamenei immediately congratulated Ahmadinejad on his victory and urged the opposition to remain silent. Khamenei has called a protest against the results of the presidential elections a great sin before God.
Faruqi said the Iranian authorities pressed people in very rough form who held peaceful rally. This has hindered a dialogue between the opposition and the government. He said Khamenei backed Ahmadinejad's power and military men, seeking to make the people shut up.
Vice-President of the Commission on Security of the Iranian parliament Ismail Kovsari called the opposition "provocateurs" and stressed that they will reveal all the organizers of clashes and deliver them to justice, Kovsari said in an interview with Trend .
Measures will be adopted towards them within the law. "They (the participants of the shares) are the forces associated with Israel, the United States and Great Britain. Their leaders Mousavi and Karrubi will soon be handed over to the law", Kovsari said over phone from Tehran.
But Faruqi thinks if Mousavi and Karrubi are arrested, people will be angry. The angry people have expressed their attitude to it more rough. The crisis can completely get out of control.
Askari said the regime of the mullahs has already exhausted itself. "We can only wait until this regime is overthrown, in a month, two months or a year.
N. Bogdanova contributed in the article.