Stocks rising, rial strengthening in Iran after nuclear deal

Stocks rising, rial strengthening in Iran after nuclear deal

By Dalga Khatinoglu

The political deal between Iran and the P5+1 continuing to strengthen the stock markets' performance and Iranian rial against foreign currencies.

The U.S. dollar was sold at 32,830 rials on April 6, 2 percent to 3 percent less than the rates before a political deal was achieved on April 2.

However, the Tehran Stock Exchange main index (TEPIX) which stood at 61,500 points on March 17, has been strengthening to 71,286 on April 6. TEPIX stood at around 65,000 a day before the political deal. The figure is even lower than it was two years ago, when TEPIX reached above 87,000 points in September 2013, a few months after President Hassan Rouhani won the elections.

Tehran Stock Exchange main index during last two fiscal years (Mar 2013 to April 2015)

For Iran which experienced around 8 percent GDP contraction during a period between imposing Western sanctions in mid-2012 and reaching an interim nuclear deal in November 2013, it's vital to reach a deal to ease biting sanctions, especially with an estimated 1.5 percent economy growth in 2014.

Suspension or elimination of the sanctions will improve Iran's economic performance, but not suddenly.The huge affect of sanctions was halving Iran's oil export, which shares about 20 percent in GDP.

The country's GDP decreased from about $550 billion in 2011 to about $369 billion in 2014. On the other hand, Iran's rial has dropped in value by more than three times since 2011.

According to a report prepared by Iranian former Minister of Road and Urban Development Ahmad Khorram for the Expediency Discernment Council, Iran has lost about $460 billion from sanctions between the Q2 of 2012 to the same period in 2014.

Regarding this fact that the comprehensive nuclear deal would be achieved June 30, then the current sanctions would be remained until this date. It's not expected that Iran could resume oil export to a level on 2011, but Iran has reportedly about 30 million barrels of crude oil stored on tankers.

Iran also has cut oil production from some fields due to halving its oil export. The country can increase crude oil production by 300 to 500 thousand barrels per day to around 3.1 to 3.3 million barrels, but regarding the present stored crude oil, as well as tough competition between Iran and other oil producer on the international markets which has faced the glut, it's not expected that the country's oil production and export increase significantly until the end of year.

Regarding the low oil prices, expected to continue for months, it seems lifting oil export-related sanctions doesn't help Iran's economy significantly, however Iran has about $100 billion blocked reserves abroad which can be released and transferred into the country during the second half of current year to be fed to projects, including the energy sector. These funds can also push the national currency to strengthen more.

Dalga Khatinoglu is an expert on Iran's energy sector, head of Trend Agency's Iran news service.

Follow him on @dalgakhatinoglu

Subscribe to Trend in Google News! Subscribe
Weekly review of key events in Azerbaijan's ICT sector
Weekly review of key events in Azerbaijan's ICT sector
Iran eyes developing national space industry
Iran eyes developing national space industry
VISA reveals main directions of work in Azerbaijan (Exclusive)
VISA reveals main directions of work in Azerbaijan (Exclusive)
Loading Bars
Latest
Meeting in Sochi - new step towards sustainable peace in South Caucasus - Turkey's presidential administration
GUAM shares reviews of results of Georgia's presidency
Uzbekistan to sell shares of its two banks to Russian banks
EBRD to support green innovation in Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan's On Dogan to scale up production of vegetables, melons
Turkey shares data on cargo shipment via its ports from Greece for 9M2021
Azerbaijan limits import of poultry products from number of countries
Number of flights from Iran’s Shahid Beheshti International Airport soars
Turkey discloses volume of cargo shipment via its from ports from Italy for 9M2021
Iran resumes activity of several enterprises in Sistan and Baluchestan Province
Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan notes increase in agricultural production for 10M2021
Relations between Baku, Moscow experience highest dev’t stage in history of Azerbaijan's independence – experts
Sri Lanka bans travellers from 6 African nations due to Omicron COVID variant
We feel very comfortable in National Gymnastics Arena in Baku - Israeli athletes
Weekly review of key events in Azerbaijan's ICT sector
Weekly review of main events in Azerbaijan's transport sector
Uzbekistan reveals leading banks without state share in terms of volume of deposits
Number of people hospitalized after Listvyazhnaya mine explosion grows to 58
Weekly review of Azerbaijani precious metals market
Georgia reveals top exported goods to China
Performing at National Gymnastics Arena in Baku is unbelievably cool - Kazakh athlete
Iran’s NICICO records increase in sales
Weekly review of Azerbaijani currency market
Azerbaijan notes growth in total liabilities of banks in 10M2021
Several hydrological points to be installed on rivers in Azerbaijan’s liberated territories – ministry
Iran’s Saipa Company increases auto manufacturing
Georgia releases COVID-19 data for November 27
Uzbekistan names leading state-owned banks in terms of volume of deposits
Georgia, EU to enhance co-op in foreign policy, security
Iran to reconsider guaranteed price for wheat purchase
Iran sees increases in exports
Iran, Afghanistan to improve trade
Third day of 28th FIG Trampoline Gymnastics World Age Group Competition kicks off in Baku (PHOTO)
Turkey shares data on cargo shipment via its ports from Spain for 9M2021
Methane outburst is viewed as likely cause behind deadly blast at Listvyazhnaya coalmine
Turkey shares data on vehicles shipments between its Cesme, Greek Chios ports
Weekly review of Azerbaijan's oil & gas sector
Iran's PBO talks reduced inflation rate
Iranian startups to make their first initial public offering - Farabourse
Iran's solar power plants generate half of renewable energies - SATBA
Iran eyes developing national space industry
Azerbaijan once again achieves its goals at meeting in Russia’s Sochi - experts
Uzbekistan shares updated COVID-19 data
New World Order and India
Iranian currency rates for November 27
Azerbaijani oil prices decrease
Azerbaijan sees decrease in number of users per payment terminal in 10M2021
Iran, France to improve economic ties
Turkey reveals volume of vehicles shipments between its Yalova, Italian Bari ports
Georgia-China trade turnover up
Kazakhstan’s Ekibastuz GRES-2 power station opens tender to buy spares for engine
Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna expect data on shot's protection against new COVID-19 variant soon
“Armenian clan” guides European institutions (PHOTO)
Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan sign tripartite MoU on railway cooperation
Turkey bans travel from 5 African countries over new COVID-19 variant
Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan sign an agreement worth about $612 million
Kazakhstan has great potential to use high environmental standards in practice - AIFC
South Africa says travel bans over new variant unjustified
US announces travel restrictions over new COVID-19 variant
At least 19 dead, 32 injured after bus crash in Mexico
US company Moderna begins work on vaccine against new SARS-CoV-2 variant ‘Omicron’
Dozens of COVID-19 cases on flight from South Africa, Dutch authorities say
Top Iran diplomat calls for lifting of sanctions, days before Vienna nuclear talks
U.S. President Biden calls for intellectual property protection waivers on COVID-19 vaccines
WTO postpones major meeting over COVID-19 concerns - sources
Trilateral meeting in Sochi can be called historic - Chairman of State Duma Committee
487 illegal immigrants rescued off Tunisian coast: ministry
WHO names new COVID variant Omicron
Sochi meeting is tremendous step in right direction; Armenia must act quickly in order to intercept its abandoned priorities - experts
Turkey to support Qatar's regional and international goals: Shentop
Kazakh President holds talks with President of European Commission
Statement by President of Azerbaijan, PM of Armenia and President of Russia published
Georgia carries out judicial reform with support of U.S., MP Okhanashvili says
Iranian, Malaysian FMs discuss bilateral ties
Foreign Ministry comments on trilateral meeting of leaders of Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia
Putin discusses results of meeting with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan with Security Council
Vladimir Putin announces agreement on unblocking transport corridors between Azerbaijan and Armenia
Commission for delimitation of border between Azerbaijan and Armenia to be created
We numerously publicly stated that we are ready to start delimitation process - President Ilham Aliyev
After military hostilities ended, over 100 Armenian servicemen were returned to Armenian side - President Ilham Aliyev
Trilateral working group of Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia to hold meeting next week in Moscow - Putin
President Ilham Aliyev ends his working visit to Sochi
Agreement reached on creation of mechanisms for demarcation and delimitation of border between Azerbaijan and Armenia before year end - Putin
Decisions taken at trilateral meeting in Sochi to contribute to safer and more predictable situation in South Caucasus - President Aliyev
Baku holds award ceremony of winners of second day of 28th FIG Trampoline Gymnastics World Age Group Competitions (PHOTO)
Kazakhstan records growth in remittances to Azerbaijan since early 2021
Russian gymnasts grab gold in synchronized trampoline at 28th FIG World Age Group Competitions in Baku
Russian President, Azerbaijani President and Armenian Prime Minister make press statements (PHOTO/VIDEO)
Price indexes of financial, trade sectors at Uzbek stock exchange rise
US gymnasts rank first in synchronized trampoline among men at 28th FIG Trampoline Gymnastics World Age Group Competitions in Baku
Azerbaijan approves boundaries of protected zone of State Reserve of Shusha city
Russian gymnasts grab gold, silver, bronze in double mini-trampoline among men at 28th FIG World Age Group Competitions in Baku
Russian-Turkish ceasefire monitoring center working hard - President Putin
French gymnast grabs gold in tumbling among women at 28th FIG World Age Group Competitions in Baku
Best moments of second day of 28th FIG Trampoline Gymnastics World Age Group Competitions in Baku (PHOTO)
Uzbekistan building power unit complex for nuclear plant in Jizzakh region
Body of another Armenian serviceman found on Azerbaijan's liberated lands
Russian gymnast grabs gold in tumbling among men at 28th FIG Trampoline Gymnastics World Age Group Competitions in Baku
Footage of warm meeting between Azerbaijani, Russian presidents in Sochi (VIDEO)
Portuguese gymnast ranks first in individual trampoline at 28th FIG Trampoline Gymnastics World Age Group Competitions in Baku (PHOTO)
All news