Baku, Azerbaijan, Sep. 6
By Farhad Daneshvar – Trend:
Nowadays diplomacy appears as the sole path to stop global crisis, further military confrontations and perhaps a possible nuclear war.
Today both, the US society and President Donald Trump’s administration, are well aware of the implications of any decision that could lead the White House to unilaterally walk away from a multilateral nuclear deal that Iran reached with the world powers including the US, two years ago.
On the other hand, President Trump’s withdrawal from the deal with Tehran could leave the US with a nuclear crisis on two fronts. The latter is North Korea.
Trump's administration, so far, has declared Iran compliant of the nuclear deal, twice, but the president has threatened with the declaration of Iran’s non-compliancy, for the next review in October. The US envoy to the UN, Nikki Haley, said on Tuesday that Trump’s possible refusal to certify Iran’s compliance with its nuclear deal does not constitute US withdrawal from the agreement.
Haley’s remarks, in fact, signals that Trump is following up on his policy to tempt Iran to leave the deal.
Many analysts around the globe suggest that if Trump announces Iran's non-compliance of the nuclear accord, the impact will be felt in Tehran and the region, in the meantime the Trump’s strategy on encouraging Iran to walkways from the deal would undermine the credibility of the US on the international arena.
While President Trump is apparently facing a serious difficulty in finding ways to deal with North Korea, diplomacy with Pyongyang seems as the only viable answer to the North Korean nuclear problem.
This is while a large group of observers believe that sanctions, so far, have not worked on North Korea and further tightening of those sanctions appears unlikely to yield proper results.
In case Trump withdraws from the nuclear accord deal with Iran, the message to North Korea and others becomes clear: the US is not reliable in honoring its commitments so why North Korea needs to waste time for diplomatic talks with the White House?
The Europeans, under no circumstances, would sacrifice the economic benefits from the new economic deals they just agreed with Iran following the implementation of the nuclear deal, simply because Trump wants to fulfill his campaign promises.
The European leaders have realized that as long as the 2015 nuclear deal is in place, it’s impossible for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon without the world’s knowledge, a fact that encourages them to stay in business" and continue the cooperation with the Islamic Republic.
As a result of the nuclear deal, trade with Iran and putting investment there is now legal and any attempts to discourage the world’s leading companies to do business in the Islamic Republic is an apparent violation of the historic accord.
While the world’s most intrusive International Atomic Energy Agency inspection program suggests that Iran is staying within the main limits set down in the nuclear deal, President Trump’s measures aimed at preventing cooperation between the world and Tehran could be considered as a violation of the spirit of the nuclear deal.
Considering Trump’s behavior since he took office this January, many observers already accuse him of attempting to damage the 2015 agreement between Iran and the world powers, including the US.
US has to keep the deal
According to the UN nuclear watchdog body, the Islamic Republic is living up to its end of the deal, therefore Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal without any justification would lead to the isolation of the US not Iran, tough many suggest that the US has already been isolated.
Nikki Haley’s recent remarks give the feeling that the US is going to keep the deal due to its own interests as a unilateral withdrawal from the deal could bring Washington discredit, though Trump is very likely to continue his aggressive and rough rhetoric towards Iran.
Barbara Slavin of the Atlantic Council told Trend that all the damages to the 2015 nuclear deal have already been done, but the historic accord is here to stay.