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General economic situation

Analysis Materials 15 January 2009 10:02 (UTC +04:00)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Azerbaijan increased by 11.5% and made up AZN 34.6bln over the last eleven months of 2008. The amount of the GDP per capita composed AZN 4051.5 ($4922.3), increasing by 10.3%. The GDP growth rates during this period were 13.9% less than the same period of 2007.

The drop in the rates of economic growth may be explained not only decrease of the growth rate in the industry, but also in the sphere of agriculture, cargo transportation and paid services. In January to November, the industrial production and services increased by 6.8% and made up AZN 26745.2mln. The growth in 2007 made up 124.7%.

The decrease of the growth rate in the industry is explained through decrease in the production of transport means (13.8%), electric, optical and electronic equipment (27.4%), etc. And the decrease in the cargo transportations resulted from breaks in the oil and gas transportation and reduction in the railway cargo transportation due to the fire on the Turkish section of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Georgian-Ossetian conflict.

In non-oil sector of industry, the volume of production and paid services increased by 6.9% and in oil sector - 6.7%.

The amount of the production in all spheres of the economy increased by 10.6% and made up 73% of the GDP where 60.3% (AZN 20909.0mln) fell on industry. The specific weight of the service sector in the GDP made up 19.5%. Net taxes from the production and import made up 7.5% in the GDP.

Value Added Price In mln manats Special weight, in % Real rise, in %
GDP in total 34660,6 100,0 111,5
production of goods 25313,6 73,0 110,6
including - industry 20909,0 60,3  107,7
- agriculture 1888,9 5,4 107,1
- construction 2515,7 7,3 139,8
Production of services 6740,8 19,5 113,0
Including: - transport 1893,8 5,5 120,2
- communications 546,0 1,6 129,3
- trade and repair 1753,2 5,1 115,0
- hotels and restaurants 250,2 0,7 134,5
- social and different services 2297,6 6,6 102,5
Net taxes on products 2606,2 7,5 116,5
Defliator 121,8 104,3

Source: State Statistics Committee

In January to November the production in the agriculture, hunting sector and forestry totaled AZN 1888.9mln, which is 5.5% of the general GDP; construction sector - AZN 2515.7mln (7.2%); transport sector - AZN 1893.8mln (5.5%); communications and post services - AZN 546mln (1.6%); wholesale and retail trade, automobile sphere, home devices and the service sector - AZN 1753.2mln (5.0%); restaurant and hotel sector - AZN 250.2mln (0.7%); social and other services - AZN 2297.6mln (6.6%).

The dominant role of oil and gas production is continuing in the GDP irrespective of the crisis situation in August. In January to November 2008, the oil production increased by 105.5%, gas production - 142.7% and oil refinery - 108.4%.

Over the reported period, the growth rates in the extractive industry were at the level of 6.2%, composing AZN 20.73bln with specific weight of 77.5% of the gross industrial production. However, growth rates in the processing industry were 8.0%, totaling AZN 4.84bln (18.1%), electricity, gas and water - AZN 1167.8mln with the increase of 8.8%.

Over the reported period, the growth in the sphere of metallurgical industry and ready production from the metal was 27.9%, food products - 0.6%, chemical production - 37.4%, production of the skin and skin wares - 32.5%.

The chemical production increased by 37.4% as compared to the same period of 2007.

Unlike previous months, growth was recorded in the public production sector which totaled 105.0% in January to November. The specific weight of the industrial production and services in the public sector made up 18.3% (AZN 4887.6mln) of all industrial production and private sector - 81.7% (AZN 21857.6mln). Growth in private sector was 107.2%.

Growth rates in the agrarian production because of the collection of the high harvest of grain in the summer season increased by 1.7%. In January-November the volume of agricultural production increased by 6.2% (for the comparison in January - November 2007 increase was 4.5%).

In addition, growth was observed in import and export operations. Azerbaijani export increased by 760.16% up to $46976.8mln and import - $6495.8mln (29.65%), and the red ink reached $40088.7mln. Nearly 92.76% of the export operations fell on oil and oil products. Export of oil increased by 14.8 times as compared to the last year.

Growth rates of investments in the economy of the country also increased. Nearly AZN 7957.5mln was invested in the economy of Azerbaijan over the period of January and November 2008, an increase of 38.8% from the figures of the last year. The specified forecast for 2008 totals AZN 8429.2mln, with an increase of 12.8%, and factual allocations over the last 11 months reached 94.4% of the forecast.

Moreover, internal investments prevail above the external investments, their share in the total amount of investments are respectively 59.6% and 25.7%. The increase is explained through large-scale construction works in the transport sector, demand for investments in the construction of production facilities.

Consumer demand somewhat reduced growth rates. During January-November the volume of retail commodity turnover grew by 15.6%, paid services - 29.6%. For the comparison, in January - November 2007 the volume of retail commodity turnover grew by 15.2%, paid services - 33.4%.

In November the growth rates in the prices of the consumer goods and tariffs on the services increased by 0.1% and in January - November the growth rates in the inflation as compared to the same period of 2007 were 21.4%. Over the reported period, the prices for foodstuffs grew by 29.5% and non-foodstuffs by 11.5%, and prices of the services - 11.5%.

Prices of the food products rose in November by 1.0%, and nonfood products by 0.1% and service tariffs - 0.1%. The State Committee fixed in November 2008 that prices of sugar and chocolate reduced 0.3%, tea and coffee - 1.3%, beer - 0.3%, alcohol drinks - 0.6%, dairy, cheese, and eggs 2.0%, meat products - 0.3%, bakery by 5.5, tobacco - 0.3%, fishery - 2.4%, vegetable - 1.0%, oil and fats - 1.0%, fruits - 1.0%.

In January to November 2008, the nominal income of the population totaled AZN 18176.8mln, which is 35.8% more as compared to 2007. During this period, the nominal income per head made up AZN 2124.7, which exceeds the figure in 2007 by 34.2%. The rise in salaries in various spheres of economy and rise in social benefits also contributed to the growth in population income.

As a result of November, the exchange rate of the national currency with respect to the USD increased by 16 points. The rate of the USD in Azerbaijan during the month reduced from 0.8095 AZN/USD to 0.8079 AZN/USD.

In November the rate of manat in relevant to the USD composed 0.81 manat, Euro - 1.03 manat, Russian ruble - 2.97 manat for 100 rubles. In January-November these indices respectively composed 0.82, 1.22 and 3.36 manat.

In November, the rate of Euro in Azerbaijan increased by 69 points (from 1.0361 AZN/EUR to 1.043 AZN/EUR).

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