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GENERAL ECONOMIC SITUATION

Analysis Materials 9 February 2006 12:01 (UTC +04:00)

In 2005 the GDP grew 16.2% in Azerbaijan as compared to 2004. The GDP grew 26.4% and made up 11,875,6m AZN at current prices. If in 1%-rise GDP was equal to 85.3m AZN in additional income, this year this figure was 118.8m AZN.

Growth pace of industrial production went up in this period and attained 33.5%. The growth was possible at the expense of commencement of the bulk oil production from the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli fields. The highest growth pace was fixed in the history of industrial development in the country. The production from Cgirag and Central Azeri fields even grew twice. In this period oil production in the country comprised 22.2 million tons and gas production 5.7 billion cu m, which increased as compared 2004 42.9% and 14.7% respectively.

The growth of production in the agrarian sector grew 7.5% in 2005 against 4.6% in 2004.

The investments put in major capital reduced. A total of 5424.3m AZN was invested in economy, which is 12.7% up as compared to 2004 when it was 36.1%. The major reason for drop in investments is cut in demand by the oil and gas sector in connection with the completion of major part of construction work in this sector

Moroever, 71% of all investments in majot capital fell on oil sector, while the rest (29%) on non-oil sector, the investments in the non-oil sector grew 38.2%.

Thus, growth pace of consumer demand rose. The turnover of retail good turnover rose 13%, while the community services grew 26.1%.

The growth pace went up, which is explained with the rise in number of individual enterprises involved in the sphere of trade and services without establishment of legal entities. Their number was increased to 140,000.

Value Added Price

In bn manats

Special weight, in %

Real rise, in %

GDP in total

11875,6

100,0

126,4

production of goods

7928,3

66,8

137,0

including

- industry

5638,4

47,5

156,8

- agriculture

1098,3

9,2

107,5

- construction

1191,6

10,0

102,0

Production of services

3035,9

25,6

109,6

Including:

- transport

684,4

5,8

111,5

- communications

269,8

2,8

136,0

- trade and repair

747,7

6,3

113,2

- hotels and restaurants

73,2

0,6

126,1

- socisl and different services

1260,8

10,6

101,5

Net taxes on products

911,4

7,7

107,8

Defliator

110,2

Sources: State Statistics Committee, calculations by Trend

Major part of demand was satisfied at the expense of export, which grew by 20.23% and comprised $4.347bn. The volume of import made up $4.2bn, or 19.46% up as compared to last year. The foreign trade ended in balance with $0.146bn in black.

The highest amount of export operations was fixed in October ($1,203bn), while the lowest in January ($0,109bn). The highest amunt of import was registered in January ($0,583bn, while the lowest in February ($0,265bn).

Growth pace of consumer prices fell and made up 5.4% in December, whereas in December it was 9.6%. Brake in foodstuff prices tariffs was the key factor for cut in prices.

It is notable that the government achieved its forecasts to ensure the single-digit inflation as a result of anti-inflation measures. Otherwise the pace observed in 2004 would be maintained (in December the growth pace of consumer prices beat an 8-year record at 10.4% per annum). Average annual inflation ratio in 2004 comprised 6.7%, whereas in 2003 2.2%. Major factor intensifying the inflation ratio was a rise in public sector deficit. Moreover, the inflation was under the impact of some factors, including the development of incomplete rivalry at the foodstuff market, artificial manipulation of prices at the market of constriction materials and increase of retail prices of natural gas and oil products.

Last year net incomes of population grew 27%, comprising 7792.3m manats, or 6.3% more than previous year.

Savings of physical entities continued rising. As of 1 January 2006, the amount of savings summed up 494,540m manats and exceeded the similar figure of last year by 22.7%.

However, growth pace of savings turned out 37.3% down than 2004 (60%) and 41.5% less than 2003 (64.2%). As a result of consolidation of manat in regard to dollar and increase of the NBAs refinancing rate from 7% to 9% last year the bank for the first time the banks started increasing the interests. Respectively, the growth pace was to increase but not reduce.

Lat year the major tendency in the financial sector was rise of manat rates in regard to USD - it rose 25 points to 4902.65 manats per US dollar. The key reason of rise in manat rates was the aspiration of the monetary authorities not to cause additional inflation at the expense of fulfillment of gold and currency reserves.

Net consolidation of manat in condition of relatively high inflation ratio led to its real consolidation. Thus, real efficient exchange rate of manat in respect to basket of currently of major foreign trade partners of the country became expensive by 15.3%, while in the non-oil sector - 12.2%. However, as compared to 2000, real effective exchange rate in respect to general foreign trade turnover fell 10.5%, while in the non-oil sector 4.5%.

Consolidation of manat boosted interests towards the securities market. Under the anti-inflation measures the NBA and the ministry of Finances increased the amount of placing of notes and state short-term bills respectively. To become more attractive the emitters increased the profitability on state securities.

As a result the amount of placement of T-bills last year made up 64,599m AZN, which is 4.1 times more than 2004 (15,821m AZN). As to short-term notes of the NBA, the emitter succeeded to place their securities worth 217,230m AZN, which is 5.9 times more than 2004.

The opposite results were demonstrated at the corporate bonds market. Last year the amount of placement in the first market comprised 3,892m AZN, which is 3.2 times more than 2004 (12,279m AZN). The amount of trading sessions on shares grew 48,719m AZN and made up 68,962m AZN.


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